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#1 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:38 AM

Why Is Illinois Hemorrhaging Residents?
STATELINE ARTICLE
June 19, 2019
By: Matt Vasilogambros Topics: Business of Government, Demographics & Economy Read time: 8 min
Pew Trusts

<More Surprise Here>

CHICAGO — It's known here as The Exodus.

People are leaving Illinois in droves. Republicans blame the state's high taxes and its unfunded pension liability, which tops $130 billion. Democrats believe it's the state's lack of investment in education and infrastructure.

One thing is certain: Illinois' population has declined by 157,000 residents over the past five years, making it one of only two states — West Virginia is the other — to lose people over the past decade.

Illinois' predicament is a perfect storm of declining manufacturing, stagnant immigration, declining birth rates, young people leaving for college and never coming back, long-standing economic discrimination against black residents, high housing costs, and the continued draw of residents to the Sun Belt.

What's happening in the Prairie State may offer national lessons about the deindustrialized economy and how that creates inequity issues in wages and housing, said Matthew Wilson, a senior research specialist at the University of Illinois at Chicago's Great Cities Institute.

For a Rust Belt state to thrive, Wilson said, officials have to focus on retaining and growing its manufacturing sector by training workers, providing affordable housing and attracting new businesses. Building up the manufacturing sector has to go hand in hand with attracting high-paying jobs, he said.

Illinois has struggled with all of that.

A 2016 poll by Southern Illinois University found that nearly half of Illinois residents wanted to move to another state, citing taxes, weather, ineffective and corrupt local government and a lack of middle-class jobs. A March poll from the university found that two-thirds of Illinois residents think the state is going in the wrong direction.

Between 2017 and 2018, 114,000 more residents left Illinois than moved in from other states. Those who left mostly moved to Florida, Texas and Indiana, IRS data shows.

Chicago's population has dropped slightly, largely because black residents are leaving for areas with lower housing costs and more jobs that don't require higher education. In downstate Illinois, the population loss has come largely from a decrease in manufacturing jobs.

(snip)

<More Surprise Here>
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#2 User is offline   Martin 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:25 AM

Illinois is 9th in per capita state and local tax burden, so it cannot be taxes alone which cause the exodus. Illinois's unemployment rate isn't much different from Indiana's. In ease of starting a business, Illinois is 28th, or about the middle of all states (Texas is #1, Florida is #6, but Indiana is #33). What could be driving the exodus is not the level of taxes but their rapid increase. Illinois has raised income taxes, gasoline taxes, property taxes. Several cities and counties increased their sales taxes just this year. The tax rate on parking places in the city of Chicago is now 40%, including 22% for the city, 9% for the county, and 9% for the state. That's my guess, not that taxes are high, although they are, but that they have rapidly gone up. With such a heavy burden of unfunded state pension liabilities, they are bound to increase rapidly in the future especially if Illinois converts from a flat state income tax to a graduated one.
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#3 User is offline   zurg 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:31 AM

As Martin said, it’s probably fear of future taxes, coupled with already not tax-friendly status.

The MSM won’t report this until they find the “real” reason people are leaving. It will be found to be .... drumroll .... yup, racism.
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#4 User is offline   Martin 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:35 AM

From the Illinois Policy website:

Illinoisans already saw property taxes grow six times faster than incomes from 2008-2015 – driven in no small part by rising pension costs at the local level and the state level, where those costs crowd out funding for core services.

From another site:

Governor Priztker says that the source of the Illinois exodus is the state's flat income tax, hence he hopes to get voters to approve a graduated tax. Meanwhile, he intends to spend $29 million to ensure a high response rate to the 2020 Census.


Gov. J.B. Pritzker plans to spend $29 million to help ensure all of the state's residents are counted in the upcoming Census, which could have broad implications for the state in terms of federal funding and representation in the U.S. Congress. He announced an executive order to help ensure an accurate count. He also blamed the state's flat income tax for Illinois' declining population.

"Our representation in the U.S. House of Representatives is on the line," Pritzker said. "Hundreds of millions of federal funding is on the line. Our ability to adequately get resources to our communities is on the line." As to the tens of thousands of Illinois residents who have moved to other states, Pritzker said who he thinks are packing up the moving vans. The governor said college students have fled the state, but he said his push to increase higher education funding will reverse that trend. He also said there's another group of people who have been leaving the state.

"The people who have been leaving the state are actually the people who have had the regressive flat income tax imposed upon them, working-class, middle-class families," Pritzker said.

Link: https://www.thecente...de507e14e4.html

Edited to add: Pritzker's explanation fails, in that Illinois has always had a flat state income tax. It's in the state constitution. The flat structure hasn't changed, the rate has gone up.

This post has been edited by Martin: 24 June 2019 - 08:43 AM

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#5 User is offline   oki 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:03 AM

View PostMartin, on 24 June 2019 - 08:25 AM, said:

Illinois is 9th in per capita state and local tax burden, so it cannot be taxes alone which cause the exodus. Illinois's unemployment rate isn't much different from Indiana's. In ease of starting a business, Illinois is 28th, or about the middle of all states (Texas is #1, Florida is #6, but Indiana is #33). What could be driving the exodus is not the level of taxes but their rapid increase. Illinois has raised income taxes, gasoline taxes, property taxes. Several cities and counties increased their sales taxes just this year. The tax rate on parking places in the city of Chicago is now 40%, including 22% for the city, 9% for the county, and 9% for the state. That's my guess, not that taxes are high, although they are, but that they have rapidly gone up. With such a heavy burden of unfunded state pension liabilities, they are bound to increase rapidly in the future especially if Illinois converts from a flat state income tax to a graduated one.



Crime as well. Although we hear about murder you don't hear much about property crimes. Even nice neighborhoods are targeted as well. Sooner or later you just get tired of everything and decide enough is enough.

Oki
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#6 User is offline   Martin 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:11 AM

View Postoki, on 24 June 2019 - 10:03 AM, said:

Crime as well. Although we hear about murder you don't hear much about property crimes. Even nice neighborhoods are targeted as well. Sooner or later you just get tired of everything and decide enough is enough. Oki


The National Crime Survey reports that Illinois has about the same rate of violent crime per capita as Texas does while the OP reports the latter as the most popular destination for Illinois refugees. Statista.com reports that Illinois actually has a below-average rate of property crime. Hence, I discount crime as the motive for most Prairie Staters to relocate.



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#7 User is offline   oki 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:24 AM

View PostMartin, on 24 June 2019 - 10:11 AM, said:

The National Crime Survey reports that Illinois has about the same rate of violent crime per capita as Texas does while the OP reports the latter as the most popular destination for Illinois refugees. Statista.com reports that Illinois actually has a below-average rate of property crime. Hence, I discount crime as the motive for most Prairie Staters to relocate.


State Wide averages yes, but some areas are far worse than others. As a Wisconsin resident we are also seeing a lot of people moving in from Illinois as well.
Personally though I think it's an all of the above. People with the means to move are simply saying to hell with the entire state.

Funny, a couple days ago I had to pick something up from a local store. As I was walking out I saw a gentlemen with a I Heart Sushi shirt. I spoke with him a bit and explained there really are few true Sushi places but recommended a couple that due a pretty good job then asked if they where familiar with Chicago as I knew a couple outstanding Japanese places in the Chicago Burbs.
Turns out they where from Chicago and couldn't believe the differences between the Green Bay and Chicago. Pretty much everything. Crime, cost of living, friendliness of people, especially traffic, it was almost like watching a bird that had been freed from a cage. It was a man his wife and small child. I mentioned to him enjoy your 2nd Amendment rights. He nodded and said I will.

Oki
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#8 User is offline   Tikk 

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:32 PM

View PostMTP Reggie, on 24 June 2019 - 07:38 AM, said:

Why Is Illinois Hemorrhaging Residents?
(snip)
Illinois' predicament is a perfect storm of declining manufacturing, stagnant immigration, declining birth rates, young people leaving for college and never coming back, long-standing economic discrimination against black residents, high housing costs, and the continued draw of residents to the Sun Belt Democrat policies.

(snip)

<More Surprise Here>


Fixed
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#9 User is offline   oki 

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Posted 25 June 2019 - 08:30 AM

View PostTikk, on 24 June 2019 - 01:32 PM, said:

Fixed


Yup Cities and States that have been leftist/Dem run for decades are perfect cause and effect studies. Yes there are exceptions, but there are also exceptions in regards to Cities and States that have been Conservative for years and turned to crap. BUT, in the case of both which as a whole have better outcomes?

Oki
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