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Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunge to Lowest Weekly Tally Since 1973 (Merged) Rate Topic: -----

#1 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:11 AM

Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunge to Lowest Weekly Tally Since 1973
By Katia Dmitrieva
January 18, 2018
bloomberg.com

<More Here With Charts And Graphs>

U.S. filings for unemployment benefits plummeted to the lowest level in almost 45 years in a sign the job market will tighten further in 2018, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.

HIGHLIGHTS OF JOBLESS CLAIMS (WEEK ENDED JAN. 13)

  • Jobless claims decreased by 41k to 220k (est. 249k); lowest level since Feb. 1973, biggest drop since Dec. 2008
  • Continuing claims rose by 76k to 1.952m in week ended Jan. 6 (data reported with one-week lag)
  • Four-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, fell to 244,500 from the prior week’s 250,750


Key Takeaways

The drop in claims shows that companies are increasingly holding on to their employees amid a shortage of skilled labor. Businesses are struggling to find workers to fill positions, particularly in manufacturing and construction, as cited in some anecdotes for the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book released Wednesday.

The figures suggest the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, already the lowest since 2000, could be poised to decline further. The latest week for claims includes the 12th of the month, which is the reference period for the Labor Department’s monthly employment surveys.

(snip)

<More Here With Charts And Graphs>
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#2 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:18 AM

Yay! Obama!!!

Oh, wait...
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#3 User is offline   AntiObama 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:25 AM

Just think Libs were happy with the Obama phone.
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#4 User is online   Dean Adam Smithee 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 10:31 AM

Let's us ALSO consider "Labor Force Participation Rate". After all, it's what we beat the Obama Administration over the head with, so let's compare apples-to-apples.

It's not quite as giddy of a picture but it IS very telling. LFPR dropped every year of the Obama administration even AFTER the so-called "recovery". In just one year of Trump it has, at the very least, "leveled off"... and that's even BEFORE Tax Reform was passed.

Perhaps it's even risen ever-so-slightly. Comparing 2017 to 2016 month-to-month, 11 of the 12 months were either as good as the same month in 2016 or 0.1% better. It's a good start:

Month, 2016, 2017:

JAN, 62.8, 62.9
FEB, 62.9, 62.9
MAR, 63.0, 63.0
APR, 62.8, 62.9
MAY, 62.6, 62.7
JUN, 62.7, 62.8
JUL, 62.8, 62.9
AUG, 62.8, 62.9
SEP, 62.9, 63.0
OCT, 62.8, 62.7
NOV, 62.7, 62.7
DEC, 62.7, 62.7

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data extracted on: January 18, 2018 (9:56:21 AM)

There's room for improvement, of course. I'd like to see it up to at least 65 which I think is very achievable. We can get there with a combination of both Tax Reform AND Immigration Enforcement. Tax Reform will create jobs, and with Immigration Enforcement those jobs will now have to be above-board and will count towards LFPR.

Get LFPR up to at least 65 and that's a number that Republicans can win elections with, even in spite of themselves.
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#5 User is offline   ThePatriot 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 12:04 PM

View PostDean Adam Smithee, on 18 January 2018 - 10:31 AM, said:

Let's us ALSO consider "Labor Force Participation Rate". After all, it's what we beat the Obama Administration over the head with, so let's compare apples-to-apples.

It's not quite as giddy of a picture but it IS very telling. LFPR dropped every year of the Obama administration even AFTER the so-called "recovery". In just one year of Trump it has, at the very least, "leveled off"... and that's even BEFORE Tax Reform was passed.

Perhaps it's even risen ever-so-slightly. Comparing 2017 to 2016 month-to-month, 11 of the 12 months were either as good as the same month in 2016 or 0.1% better. It's a good start:

Month, 2016, 2017:

JAN, 62.8, 62.9
FEB, 62.9, 62.9
MAR, 63.0, 63.0
APR, 62.8, 62.9
MAY, 62.6, 62.7
JUN, 62.7, 62.8
JUL, 62.8, 62.9
AUG, 62.8, 62.9
SEP, 62.9, 63.0
OCT, 62.8, 62.7
NOV, 62.7, 62.7
DEC, 62.7, 62.7

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data extracted on: January 18, 2018 (9:56:21 AM)

There's room for improvement, of course. I'd like to see it up to at least 65 which I think is very achievable. We can get there with a combination of both Tax Reform AND Immigration Enforcement. Tax Reform will create jobs, and with Immigration Enforcement those jobs will now have to be above-board and will count towards LFPR.

Get LFPR up to at least 65 and that's a number that Republicans can win elections with, even in spite of themselves.


That's a very good point.

I anticipate, with the much lower corporate tax rate, we are going to see job increases in several sectors.

I absolutely expect to see the LFPR increase steadily over the next 12 months.
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#6 User is offline   Ben Cranklin 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 12:30 PM

U.S. Jobless Claims Plunge to Lowest Weekly Tally Since 1973
By Katia Dmitrieva
‎January‎ ‎18‎, ‎2018‎ ‎8‎:‎30‎ ‎AM Updated on ‎January‎ ‎18‎, ‎2018‎ ‎9‎:‎20‎ ‎AM
Bloomberg.com


U.S. filings for unemployment benefits plummeted to the lowest level in almost 45 years in a sign the job market will tighten further in 2018, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.

The drop in claims shows that companies are increasingly holding on to their employees amid a shortage of skilled labor. Businesses are struggling to find workers to fill positions, particularly in manufacturing and construction, as cited in some anecdotes for the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book released Wednesday.

The figures suggest the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, already the lowest since 2000, could be poised to decline further. The latest week for claims includes the 12th of the month, which is the reference period for the Labor Department’s monthly employment surveys.

Link

This post has been edited by Ben Cranklin: 18 January 2018 - 12:31 PM

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#7 User is offline   Ben Cranklin 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 12:32 PM

But let's complain about cherry and strawberry Star Bursts, instead.
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#8 User is offline   firecoco 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 12:39 PM

View PostBen Cranklin, on 18 January 2018 - 12:32 PM, said:

But let's complain about cherry and strawberry Star Bursts, instead.

Look Squirrel
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#9 User is offline   mjperry51 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 01:46 PM

View Postfirecoco, on 18 January 2018 - 12:39 PM, said:

Look Squirrel

Don't you mean hamster??

http://www.hampsterdance.com/images/hamu.gif
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#10 User is offline   intotheblackhole 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 02:13 PM

This will increase wage as employees will have to pay more to hire them. Good for employees, bad for businesses.
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#11 User is offline   AntonToo 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 02:22 PM

View PostDean Adam Smithee, on 18 January 2018 - 10:31 AM, said:

Let's us ALSO consider "Labor Force Participation Rate". After all, it's what we beat the Obama Administration over the head with, so let's compare apples-to-apples.

It's not quite as giddy of a picture but it IS very telling. LFPR dropped every year of the Obama administration even AFTER the so-called "recovery". In just one year of Trump it has, at the very least, "leveled off"... and that's even BEFORE Tax Reform was passed.

Perhaps it's even risen ever-so-slightly. Comparing 2017 to 2016 month-to-month, 11 of the 12 months were either as good as the same month in 2016 or 0.1% better. It's a good start:

Month, 2016, 2017:

JAN, 62.8, 62.9
FEB, 62.9, 62.9
MAR, 63.0, 63.0
APR, 62.8, 62.9
MAY, 62.6, 62.7
JUN, 62.7, 62.8
JUL, 62.8, 62.9
AUG, 62.8, 62.9
SEP, 62.9, 63.0
OCT, 62.8, 62.7
NOV, 62.7, 62.7
DEC, 62.7, 62.7

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject, Data extracted on: January 18, 2018 (9:56:21 AM)

There's room for improvement, of course. I'd like to see it up to at least 65 which I think is very achievable. We can get there with a combination of both Tax Reform AND Immigration Enforcement. Tax Reform will create jobs, and with Immigration Enforcement those jobs will now have to be above-board and will count towards LFPR.

Get LFPR up to at least 65 and that's a number that Republicans can win elections with, even in spite of themselves.


??? There is absolutely no difference in LFPR between 2016 under Obama and 2017 under Trump. It was more of the same.

Just as I explained back in the day when LFPR used to be the favorite rightwing straw to grab on to amid clearly growing economy - the downwards socio-demographic undercurrent in LFPR is expected to persist all the way into 2040's.

Through the business cycle LFPR will stay flat on the upside and will drop like a rock on the downswing. Reality is so far closely matching the forecasts from as far back as early 2000s:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6FlJBWuOoCU/T4WgHmwHzjI/AAAAAAAAMvw/68yL9o7sipg/s1600/ParticpationRateProjection.jpg

This post has been edited by AntonToo: 18 January 2018 - 02:23 PM

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#12 User is online   oki 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 03:33 PM

View PostAntonToo, on 18 January 2018 - 02:22 PM, said:

??? There is absolutely no difference in LFPR between 2016 under Obama and 2017 under Trump. It was more of the same.

Just as I explained back in the day when LFPR used to be the favorite rightwing straw to grab on to amid clearly growing economy - the downwards socio-demographic undercurrent in LFPR is expected to persist all the way into 2040's.

Through the business cycle LFPR will stay flat on the upside and will drop like a rock on the downswing. Reality is so far closely matching the forecasts from as far back as early 2000s:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6FlJBWuOoCU/T4WgHmwHzjI/AAAAAAAAMvw/68yL9o7sipg/s1600/ParticpationRateProjection.jpg



Are you still going to try and tell us retirees bring the labor force participation rate down?

Oki
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#13 User is offline   MontyPython 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 06:14 PM

View Postoki, on 18 January 2018 - 03:33 PM, said:

Are you still going to try and tell us retirees bring the labor force participation rate down?

Oki


Sure, why not? The point, after all, is to bash Trump. Little inconveniences like "facts" and "accuracy" and "truth" are of much lesser importance.

B)
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#14 User is online   Noclevermoniker 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 08:49 PM

View PostAntonToo, on 18 January 2018 - 02:22 PM, said:

??? There is absolutely no difference in LFPR between 2016 under Obama and 2017 under Trump. It was more of the same.

Just as I explained back in the day when LFPR used to be the favorite rightwing straw to grab on to amid clearly growing economy - the downwards socio-demographic undercurrent in LFPR is expected to persist all the way into 2040's.

Through the business cycle LFPR will stay flat on the upside and will drop like a rock on the downswing. Reality is so far closely matching the forecasts from as far back as early 2000s:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6FlJBWuOoCU/T4WgHmwHzjI/AAAAAAAAMvw/68yL9o7sipg/s1600/ParticpationRateProjection.jpg

14,000+ posts and the communist still takes a free ride.

Your life must suck donkeys.
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#15 User is online   oki 

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Posted 18 January 2018 - 09:31 PM

View PostMontyPython, on 18 January 2018 - 06:14 PM, said:

Sure, why not? The point, after all, is to bash Trump. Little inconveniences like "facts" and "accuracy" and "truth" are of much lesser importance.

B)



Should be epic.

But, for the record...

Labor force is everyone between 16-65 who is able to work. People in long term care such as nursing homes, active duty military, those in prison, and stay at home parents are not counted. The participation rate is the percentage of people who are in the Labor Force who are either working or at least looking for a job.
And, it makes sense, why would you count people who are retired or incarcerated as workers?

Also, for retirees to affect the participation rate the number of people retiring would have to be higher then the number of people entering the workforce.

Oki
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