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#1 User is online   pepperonikkid 

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  Posted 22 February 2019 - 06:15 AM

CMS report shows CBO was wildly off base in Obamacare estimates









https://www.americanthinker.com
By Rick Moran
February 22, 2019


Article:

Someday, when an in-depth history of the Obamacare law is written, an entire chapter will be devoted to the Congressional Budget Office estimates over the years that have had such a huge impact on the nation's healthcare system.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services issued a report on healthcare spending and in a footnote at the end of the document, estimated the impact of the elimination of the individual mandate from Obamacare. The CBO estimated a whopping 14 million people would lose coverage. But CMS discovered that estimate to be wildly off base. The real number is closer to 2.5 million.

This has been a pattern by CBO since the law was being debated a decade ago. In fact, their estimates on the number of people who would purchase insurance as a result of the mandate were used by policymakers in determining that the mandate was vitally necessary to the success or failure of Obamacare - estimates that convinced Barack Obama to insist on including it in the final version of the legislation.

Those faulty estimates continue to have an impact today.

Washington Examiner:

Over time, as Obamacare was implemented, experts began to question the importance of the mandate. But when Republicans sought to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017, the CBO did not adjust its assumptions about its power. For instance, in one version of the House bill, the CBO found that before any cuts to actual spending went into effect, 14 million fewer people would be insured and that, "Most of the reductions in coverage ... would stem from repealing the penalties associated with the individual mandate." Incredibly, the CBO estimated that 5 million fewer people would enroll in free Medicaid mainly due to the elimination of the penalties. This number accounted for more than half of the 24 million the CBO said the Republican plan would reduce coverage for overall over a decade.

While any CBO analysis of the Republican bills was likely to project large coverage losses due to the cuts to Medicaid and subsidies, if CBO had more realistic assumptions about the mandate, the numbers would have been significantly smaller, and perhaps left more room to convince centrist Republicans to get on board.

On the flip side, the CBO's wild assumptions about the mandate benefited the GOP when it came to passing the tax law in 2017. Then, the CBO estimated eliminating the penalties would mean 4 million fewer people having coverage in 2019, and 13 million fewer overall. The CBO said this would save $338 billion, mainly due to lower spending on Medicaid and insurance subsidies, giving Republicans more paper savings to work with to provide a more substantial tax cut and secure final passage.


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#2 User is offline   Ticked@TinselTown 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 03:08 PM

Wow... Whodathunkit?
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#3 User is offline   MontyPython 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 05:06 PM

View PostTicked@TinselTown, on 22 February 2019 - 03:08 PM, said:

Wow... Whodathunkit?


Yeah, golly! What a shock! Who could have predicted this? I mean besides everybody...

:coolshades:
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#4 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 05:40 PM

View PostMontyPython, on 22 February 2019 - 05:06 PM, said:

Yeah, golly! What a shock! Who could have predicted this? I mean besides everybody...

:coolshades:


Well... Not everybody. The lefty/proggy/democrat idiots who championed obamacare certainly couldn't.

This post has been edited by MTP Reggie: 22 February 2019 - 05:40 PM

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#5 User is offline   MontyPython 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 05:43 PM

View PostMTP Reggie, on 22 February 2019 - 05:40 PM, said:

Well... Not everybody. The lefty/proggy/democrat idiots who championed obamacare certainly couldn't.


Good point. I'll revise my comment:

Yeah, golly! What a shock! Who could have predicted this? I mean besides everybody with properly-functioning brain cells.

Better?

;)
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#6 User is offline   zurg 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 06:05 PM

View PostMontyPython, on 22 February 2019 - 05:43 PM, said:

Good point. I'll revise my comment:

Yeah, golly! What a shock! Who could have predicted this? I mean besides everybody with properly-functioning brain cells.

Better?

;)

Yeah better :lol:

Like Reggie said, a certain Too did spout the infallibility of CBO during the Obama years.
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#7 User is online   gravelrash 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 06:58 PM

Thanks to the genius or perhaps duplicity of Chief Justice John Roberts. Ruling 0bamacare a tax made it easy to eliminate the individual mandate. Yes, it was a tax. The way that 0bamacare was passed doesn't pass the smell test let alone any Constitutional challenges.

The Democrats failed to take into account two crucial factors: Human nature and the possibility that Hillary? would lose. As Nutsy Pelosi said so famously: "Embrace the suck!"
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#8 User is offline   Ticked@TinselTown 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 07:11 PM

View PostMontyPython, on 22 February 2019 - 05:43 PM, said:

Good point. I'll revise my comment:

Yeah, golly! What a shock! Who could have predicted this? I mean besides everybody with properly-functioning brain cells.

Better?

;)


You nailed it!
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#9 User is offline   MontyPython 

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 09:14 PM

View Postzurg, on 22 February 2019 - 06:05 PM, said:

Yeah better :lol:

Like Reggie said, a certain Too did spout the infallibility of CBO during the Obama years.

View PostTicked@TinselTown, on 22 February 2019 - 07:11 PM, said:

You nailed it!



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