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#1 User is offline   grimreefer 

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 12:33 AM


We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China

Kurt Schlichter
Mar 21, 2019 12:01 AM

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not represent the views of Townhall.com.


Nations famously tend to always try to fight the last war, and what America is preparing to do today with the newly assertive China is no exception. The problem is our last war was against primitive religious fanatics in the Middle East and China is an emerging superpower with approaching-peer level conventional capabilities and an actual strategy for contesting the United States in all the potential battlespaces – land, sea, air, space and cyber. America is simply not ready for the Pacific war to come. We’re likely to lose.

In Desert Storm, Saddam Hussein was dumb enough to choose to face a U.S. military that was ready to fight its last war. That last war was the Cold War, where the Americans were prepared to fight a Soviet-equipped conscript army using Soviet tactics. And Saddam, genius that he was, decided to face America and its allies with a Soviet-equipped conscript army using Soviet tactics, except fractionally as effective as the Russians. It went poorly. I know – I was there at the VII Corps main command post as his entire army was annihilated in 100 hours.

Chances are that the Chinese will not choose to fight our strengths. In fact, those chances total approximately 100%.

It’s called “asymmetrical warfare” in English. What it’s called in Chinese I have no idea, but Sun Tzu wrote about it. Don’t fight the enemy’s strength; fight his weakness. Strike where he is not. Spread confusion about your intentions; force him to lash out. It’s all there in The Art of War; it’s just not clear anyone forming our current American military strategy has read it. Maybe they would if we labeled it “Third World” literature and said checking it out would check a diversity box for promotion.

We seem intent on fighting not the enemy we face but the enemy we want to face. This is a rookie mistake. And we’ve built our strategy around that error. Take aircraft carriers. I have a sentimental attachment to those potent floating fortresses – the Schlichters are usually Navy officers and I’m the random green sheep who went Army. There was a picture of my dad’s carrier (the U.S.S. Lake Champlain) hanging in my house as a kid. I love them – but in 2019 they’re a trap.

We’re hanging our whole maritime strategy in the Pacific Ocean around a few of these big, super-expensive iron airfields. If a carrier battle group (a carrier rolls with a posse like an old school rapper) gets within aircraft flight range of an enemy, then the enemy will have a bad day. So, what’s the super-obvious counter to our carrier strategy? Well, how about a bunch of relatively cheap missiles with a longer range than the carrier’s aircraft? And – surprise – what are the Chinese doing? Building a bunch of hypersonic and ballistic anti-ship missiles to pummel our flattops long before the F-35s and F-18s can reach the Chinese mainland. We know this because the Chinese are telling us they intend to do it, with the intent of neutering our combat power and breaking our will to fight by causing thousands of casualties in one fell swoop.

The vulnerability of our carriers is no surprise; the Navy has been warned about it for years. There are a number of ideas out there to address the issue, but the Navy resists. One good one is to replace the limited numbers of (again) super-expensive, short-range manned aircraft with a bunch more long range drones. Except that means the Naval aviation community would have to admit the Top Gun era is in the past, and that’s too hard. So they buy a bunch of pricy, shiny manned fighters that can’t get the job done.

Another mistake is over-prioritizing quality over quantity, which is the same mistake the Nazis made with their tanks. The Wehrmacht had the greatest tanks in the world – all top notch. Really good tanks. Tank-to-tank, they were the best – the dreaded Tiger had an 11.5-to-1 kill ratio. The Americans and Russians had merely decent tanks, just multiples more of them. Quantity has a quality all its own. Right now, America has something like 280 ships. We’ll have about 326 by 2023. That’s to cover the entire world. We had 6,768 ships when WWII ended in August 1945

Of course, it would also be nice if the Navy would emphasize seamanship and basic skills again so that it could keep its super-expensive ships from running into other vessels. The U.S.S. Fitzgerald collision not only killed some of our precious sailors, but took out a key weapons platform – 1/280th of our entire fleet! – because its officers failed again and again and because key systems on the ship were out of commission.

This is inexcusable, but it is being excused. The focus of our military has shifted from victory to satisfying the whims of politicians. Here’s a troubling thought – if you go to one of the service branches’ War Colleges and poll the faculty and students about America’s greatest strategic threat, as many as 50% of the respondents will tell you it is “climate change.” That’s not an exaggeration. Our military is supposed to be dealing with the Chinese military and its brain trust is obsessing about the weather in 100 years.



I agree if it comes to a fighting war, but China has been too smart and/or has no need for that as our politicians have been handing the country to them on a silver platter for years. Also from Sun Tzu:

For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill. Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

#2 User is online   Howsithangin 

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 02:13 AM

There won't be a war with China.
1. It's now how they do business. China likes to operate behind the scenes, not confront.
2. How much of our debt does it hold? And if we cancel?
3. Our economies are too intertwined. It would be mutual suicide.

#3 User is offline   USMCforever60 

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 10:11 AM

View PostHowsithangin, on 21 March 2019 - 02:13 AM, said:

There won't be a war with China.
1. It's now how they do business. China likes to operate behind the scenes, not confront.
2. How much of our debt does it hold? And if we cancel?
3. Our economies are too intertwined. It would be mutual suicide.

1. Only war we will have with China will be economy driven. Yes the ChiComs work behind the scenes, not confront but they have also infiltrated our highest levels of business and govt. Kill from within, like a dangerous growth.
2. Yes the Japs did the same thing in 1970-80's, and only thru the force of a decent economy did we survive. Banks/Treasury/Businesses all worked in some degree of harmony to promote and achieve prosperity.
3. That I cannot argue. But my first inclination if the little chinkers decide to call out debt, tell them "Hey, you want your money, come and get it!" Not going to happen. However I believe Pres Trump will work a good deal for us...God help us if that collection of nit/half/inbred wits in Washington try and negotiate a deal...hell, most of them could not get laid at a women's prison with a handful of pardons.

#4 User is offline   Coach 

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Posted 21 March 2019 - 12:15 PM

If the Chinese economy tanks they may be forced to go to war in order to avoid an uprising within. We must be so strong that they are forced to back away from using the military option.

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