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RightNation.US: Do Demographics Favor the Democrats? - RightNation.US

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We're told constantly that demographic trends favor the Democrats. White voters, for instance will become the minority by 2050 or blue eyed people will go extinct by 2025. There are all kinds of trends that are supposed to spell doom for the GOP and the political right in general.

But they all depend on three things which we know not to be true.

1. All trends continue.

Of course they don't. Trends change. They slow down, speed up, reverse themselves, or freeze. The one thing trends never do is remain as they are. However, some trends do result in significant, disruptive change. If you had told the average American 150 years ago that less than 2% of the work force in 2017 were farmers, they'd probably imagine a future marked by famine and despair. But the trend of people moving off the farm and into the city didn't happen steadily. It happened in fits and starts. But the fact that it resulted in higher standards of living meant that it was allowed if not encouraged to continue. And that leads to the second point.

2. All trends are inevitable.

They're not. For many of us, immigration and the demographic trends that result seem to be foregone conclusions. We've always had robust immigration, we've always needed it, and there's nothing we can do about it anyway. But that's not true. The immigration restrictions following World War I were something pretty much everyone agreed were necessary. Many if not most progressives saw restricting immigration as fundamental to their grand eugenic plans for a healthier race. Those on what we would call the "right" at the time, President Calvin Coolidge for example, were concerned more about national cohesion and economic pressures. We find ourselves in a similar situation today, only the progressives of today have abandoned nationalist eugenics in favor of globalist paternalism. The arguments from the right haven't changed. Only the narrative has.

3. Analysis of demographic trends is sound.

It's not. It's hilariously wrong in many cases. Take the following analysis from Business Insider regarding the state of Utah's highest in the nation birth rate:


The majority of Utah residents are Mormon, and their church has declared "that God's commandment for His children to multiply and replenish the earth remains in force." That might be part of the reason that, according to the Census Bureau, Utah has the largest average household size in the country and the highest rate of households that are a husband and wife with at least one child.

But that might not be the primary reason for the state's high birth rate.

Utah also has the lowest median age in the country (29.2), and as economist Pam Perlich pointed out to The Salt Lake Tribune, "birth rates are higher when you have a lot of young people, because they are the ones who have babies."

So, it's not the religious imperative to have children, it's the fact that Utah has a lot of young people. Of course we all know how young people are drawn to Utah. It's the Hot Topic of states. Kids dream of the day they turn eighteen so they can pack into their VW buses and head out on their own to...Utah.

I see this kind of illogical thinking all the time in economics texts and articles about demographic trends. Writers will treat certain facts like they're completely without cause and then present the actual cause as the result. In this case, the cause--a religious imperative to have kids--results in a younger population, and the younger population fortifies the trend. It's called a "virtuous cycle". The more well known "vicious cycle" happens when fewer births result in an older population. An older population is going to have fewer kids, but what caused the trend of having fewer kids to occur?

Utah is the key. We're always told that affluence and education cause birth rates to decline. But Utah is, by world and US standards, one of the most affluent and educated places on Earth. The difference is religious teaching. If the Amish were a state of their own, they'd rival Utah, averaging 6-7 children per family.

So, it would seem that if the GOP and the political right want to diminish the influence of California and New York, states with birth rates below the national average, they'll keep their campaign promises on curbing immigration AND encouraging larger families. The former can and must be accomplished through legislation, but the latter can be accomplished by getting the federal government out of the culture wars. States with large Christian majorities need to be allowed to develop social expectations that lead to larger families. Government meddling in education has been thwarting that development for decades through "family planning" efforts. The courts have become decidedly anti-family by weighting everything towards mothers while allowing no-fault divorce.

It's going to take a long time to change our culture. People don't want big families because they think kids are too expensive or that kids get in the way of a fulfilling lifestyle. I say if you want Western Civilization to continue, you're going to have to produce more kids. There's simply no point in fighting political and cultural battles when you're resigned to being out-manned.

My Mind is Clean

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