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Update: Models Can't Keep Up With Migrating Magnetic North Pole And The US Government Shutdown Just Made It Worse Rate Topic: -----

#1 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 09:16 AM

Models Can't Keep Up With Migrating Magnetic North Pole, And The US Government Shutdown Just Made It Worse
George Dvorsky
Jan 16, 2019, 9:00pm
Gizmodo

<More Here>

Rapid and erratic movements of Earth's north magnetic pole have prompted an early update to a model that assists with navigation. The scheduled fix was supposed to happen on January 15, but the US government shutdown has forced an unwelcome delay. The magnetic north pole is shifting at an unprecedented rate. Over the last 30 years, the rate of distance that the magnetic north pole moves per year has sped up, around 15km per year to around 55km per year, according to Nature. Unlike the static geographic north pole, the north magnetic pole is in constant flux, influenced by the movements of iron-rich fluids deep below the Earth's crust. Or at least that's the theory — the whole thing is still somewhat of a scientific mystery.

The World Magnetic Model (WMM) provides a five-year forecast of the Earth's magnetic field, which assists with navigation. But the rapid and irregular movements of the north magnetic pole over the past three years have made the 2015 WMM inaccurate. An unprecedented early update was supposed to happen on 15 January 2019, but that's been bumped to January 30 owing to the ongoing US government shutdown, reports Nature. The WMM forecasts are produced by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) on behalf of the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the UK Defence Geographic Centre.

The WMM describes the primary engine responsible for magnetic pole movement: The Earth's core. Beginning in late 2014, however, the core geomagnetic field started to shift in a way that hadn't been predicted, wrote BGS scientist Will Brown at his blog. In addition to this abrupt change, scientists started to observe accelerations of flow in the core in the northern hemisphere. And in 2016, a particularly powerful geomagnetic pulse under South America complicated matters even further, the Nature article explained. By March 2018, the 2015 WMM had become woefully out of date, with the BGS saying it was "no longer meeting its accuracy requirements." Hence the need to update the map a year earlier than usual. For the fix, scientists will add three years of scientific data to the model, taking the 2016 pulse into account.

(snip)

<More Here>


Emphasis mine.
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#2 User is offline   Bubbajoebob 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 09:21 AM

Maybe it's time to get the government out of the business of making navigation computer models for the world? Surely some private group could do it better and cheaper and not be held hostage by a political disagreement on the budget.
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#3 User is offline   MontyPython 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 09:33 AM

Global warming! No wait, I mean global magnetic stuff! No wait, I mean styrofoam cups! No wait, I mean plastic straws! No wait...

:pinch:
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#4 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 09:47 AM

View PostMontyPython, on 18 January 2019 - 09:33 AM, said:

Global warming! No wait, I mean global magnetic stuff! No wait, I mean styrofoam cups! No wait, I mean plastic straws! No wait...

:pinch:


Cow farts!
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#5 User is offline   USNJIMRET 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 10:46 AM

I don't mean to sound stupid, considering I am not, perhaps uninformed is better, but...….who is using a navigation device relying on true magnetic north calculations anymore?

Hell, even my damn car has GPS navigation.
My phone can figure out where it is based on GPS.
OR is a real world map necessary in case of satellite failure?


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#6 User is offline   Ticked@TinselTown 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 11:16 AM

So the flock of Victoria's Secret girls are wandering around aimlessly?
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#7 User is offline   Censport 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 12:09 PM

View PostTicked@TinselTown, on 18 January 2019 - 11:16 AM, said:

So the flock of Victoria's Secret girls are wandering around aimlessly?

https://i.imgflip.com/2rgr5b.jpg
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#8 User is offline   Bubbajoebob 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 12:22 PM

View PostUSNJIMRET, on 18 January 2019 - 10:46 AM, said:

I don't mean to sound stupid, considering I am not, perhaps uninformed is better, but...….who is using a navigation device relying on true magnetic north calculations anymore?

Hell, even my damn car has GPS navigation.
My phone can figure out where it is based on GPS.
OR is a real world map necessary in case of satellite failure?


GPS tells you your location, but it doesn't tell you direction unless you're moving, then it tells you which way you're going. i.e. If you're sitting still it can tell you which direction you want to go, but not which way that is.

When I use a portable telescope that has GPS in its computer to find my location it also uses magnetic north to find direction (then uses 2 or 3 stars to fine-tune everything).

It's also good to have magnetic directions in case the GPS signal get degraded deliberately or because of accident.
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#9 User is offline   Tikk 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 05:23 PM

Am I the only one who thought the headline referred to fashion models?
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#10 User is online   Dean Adam Smithee 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 05:32 PM

View PostUSNJIMRET, on 18 January 2019 - 10:46 AM, said:

I don't mean to sound stupid, considering I am not, perhaps uninformed is better, but...….who is using a navigation device relying on true magnetic north calculations anymore?

Hell, even my damn car has GPS navigation.
My phone can figure out where it is based on GPS.
OR is a real world map necessary in case of satellite failure?


YES. GPS Satellites can be knocked out. Or Jammed:

The Warzone (2018): Russia Has Four Potential "Killer Satellites" In Orbit, At Least That We Know About.

Breaking Defense (2015): Pentagon Reports On China’s Satellite Killers

You can bet your bottom dollar that if the excrement ever hits the ventilation apparatus with Russia or China, anything Satellite related will be the first casualty.

Or, on a smaller scale, tech available even potential terrorists:

Gizmodo: Jamming GPS Signals Is Illegal, Dangerous, Cheap, and Easy"... In June 2015, planes flying into Northeast Philadelphia Airport kept reporting that they were losing the GPS signal on the last mile of their approach..." "...Last year, the FCC fined a Chinese company a record $34 million for selling 10 jammers to undercover FCC agents...."

Trackimo: 4 Widely Known Methods of GPS Jamming
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#11 User is offline   Ticked@TinselTown 

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Posted 18 January 2019 - 10:51 PM

View PostCensport, on 18 January 2019 - 12:09 PM, said:

https://i.imgflip.com/2rgr5b.jpg


There's a dry cleaner somewhere feeling like he hit the lottery...
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#12 User is offline   Big Dave 

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Posted 19 January 2019 - 06:49 AM

View PostMontyPython, on 18 January 2019 - 09:33 AM, said:

Global warming! No wait, I mean global magnetic stuff! No wait, I mean styrofoam cups! No wait, I mean plastic straws! No wait...

:pinch:

You beat me to it! Alternately, there's the Hank Johnson theory that all these people in the northern hemisphere are causing instability and we may capsize! :biglaugh:
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#13 User is offline   Ladybird 

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Posted 19 January 2019 - 07:02 AM

View PostTikk, on 18 January 2019 - 05:23 PM, said:

Am I the only one who thought the headline referred to fashion models?


Nope.
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#14 User is offline   grimreefer 

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Posted 19 January 2019 - 07:06 AM

View PostBig Dave, on 19 January 2019 - 06:49 AM, said:

You beat me to it! Alternately, there's the Hank Johnson theory that all these people in the northern hemisphere are causing instability and we may capsize! :biglaugh:

:rofl: :thumbsup:
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