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U.S. Wages Unexpectedly Climb the Most Since Recession Ended in 2009 It's the return of the word "unexpectedly". Rate Topic: -----

#1 User is offline   Censport 

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Posted 09 September 2018 - 10:14 PM

U.S. Wages Unexpectedly Climb the Most Since Recession Ended in 2009
By Bloomberg
September 7, 2018


American wages unexpectedly climbed in August by the most since the recession ended in 2009 and hiring rose by more than forecast, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lift interest rates this month and making another hike in December more likely.

Average hourly earnings for private workers increased 2.9 percent from a year earlier, a Labor Department report showed Friday, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey and the median projection for 2.7 percent. Nonfarm payrolls rose 201,000 from the prior month, topping the median forecast for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, still near the lowest since the 1960s.

Treasury yields and the dollar jumped after the report, while U.S. stocks opened lower as investors saw the data as encouraging Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to keep tightening monetary policy beyond this month.

A lack of wage gains has been a major blemish on an economy that President Donald Trump has called the strongest ever — and is currently being boosted by his tax-cut stimulus. Some investors had speculated the Fed would pause after this month given an escalating trade war and turmoil in emerging markets.

“The labor market looks great,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York. Weak wage growth “had been the one fly in the ointment in the last few years. Perkier wages are the final confirmation the labor market is back to normal.”

What Our Economists Say:

Labor slack has diminished to a degree that is finally having a greater impact on wage pressures. In turn, it will signal to policy makers that the economy is operating in the vicinity of full employment, thereby vindicating those Fed officials who have suggested that the neutral unemployment rate has drifted down relative to previous cycles.– Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Tim MahedyRead the full report

The latest data “might move the needle for the doubters in the market” about a December Fed hike, he said. “The biggest concern is the effect of tariffs,” though McCarthy said he thinks at this point it may only affect some sectors of the economy.

Here are the highlights of the three most closely-watched components of the report: payrolls, wages and unemployment.

Payrolls

<snip>

Service providers increased payrolls by 178,000 workers, a three-month high. Gains were led by education and health services at 53,000 jobs, professional and business services with 53,000 and wholesale trade at 22,400.

Government payrolls decreased by 3,000. Private employment rose by 204,000, compared with a median estimate of 194,000.

<snip>

Wages

Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent from the prior month following a 0.3 percent gain, the report showed. The annual gain followed a 2.7 percent advance in July.

A separate measure, average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers, increased 2.8 percent from a year earlier, after a 2.7 percent gain.

<snip>

Unemployment

The jobless rate remains well below Fed estimates of levels sustainable in the long run. The latest figure reflects a decrease of 46,000 unemployed people in August and a 423,000 drop in the number of people with jobs.

That lowered the participation rate, or share of working-age people in the labor force, to 62.7 percent from 62.9 percent the prior month. The employment-population ratio, another broad measure of labor-market health that central bankers like to watch, fell to 60.3 percent from 60.5 percent.

Another measure showed diminishing labor-market slack. The U-6, or underemployment rate, fell to 7.4 percent, the lowest since 2001, from 7.5 percent. That gauge includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want a job but aren’t actively looking.


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#2 User is offline   Censport 

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Posted 09 September 2018 - 10:21 PM

It's time for economic headlines to use the word "unexpectedly" again!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#3 User is offline   Liz 

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Posted 09 September 2018 - 11:25 PM

View PostCensport, on 09 September 2018 - 10:21 PM, said:

It's time for economic headlines to use the word "unexpectedly" again!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

What a refreshing change from Obama's miserable "new normal". :P
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#4 User is offline   Howsithangin 

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Posted 10 September 2018 - 04:40 AM

View PostCensport, on 09 September 2018 - 10:21 PM, said:

It's time for economic headlines to use the word "unexpectedly" again!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

My reaction exactly!
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#5 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 10 September 2018 - 06:36 AM

View PostCensport, on 09 September 2018 - 10:21 PM, said:

It's time for economic headlines to use the word "unexpectedly" again!

View PostLiz, on 09 September 2018 - 11:25 PM, said:

What a refreshing change from Obama's miserable "new normal".


You both know this is really bad news. You're just not looking at it correctly and you'll be corrected shortly.
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#6 User is offline   Taggart Transcontinental 

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Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:48 AM

I wonder what is so unexpected? Get rid of drags on the economy like ridiculous rules that empower government, chase out illegals and lower the available market of lower end talent and suddenly those people can make a real wage. Nothing unexpected, just not what Lord Maynard Keynes said.

Instead we are supporting the Prussian model of economic growth.

Oh that's what was unexpected!.
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#7 User is offline   erp 

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Posted 11 September 2018 - 04:26 AM

Where is the Russian to tell me why this is bad?
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#8 User is offline   Ticked@TinselTown 

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Posted 11 September 2018 - 06:25 AM

Instead of a cell phone and pen that violate the Constitution and the laws of the land, Trump has a magic wand that actually works within the law! Whodathunkit? :coolshades:
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#9 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 11 September 2018 - 06:52 AM

View Posterp, on 11 September 2018 - 04:26 AM, said:

Where is the Russian to tell me why this is bad?


Since they aren't paying members, they can't access this Forum. It's why I post a lot of the economic stuff with political potential in the Political Forum - so we can make fun of them there.
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#10 User is offline   Censport 

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Posted 11 September 2018 - 10:11 AM

View PostTicked@TinselTown, on 11 September 2018 - 06:25 AM, said:

Instead of a cell phone and pen that violate the Constitution and the laws of the land, Trump has a magic wand that actually works within the law! Whodathunkit? :coolshades:

What Obama calls a "magic wand" is what the rest of us call "experience in the private sector".

View PostMTP Reggie, on 11 September 2018 - 06:52 AM, said:

Since they aren't paying members, they can't access this Forum. It's why I post a lot of the economic stuff with political potential in the Political Forum - so we can make fun of them there.

I had forgotten all about that. Gee, I bet that's frustrating for those freeloaders. :lol:
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#11 User is offline   Ticked@TinselTown 

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Posted 11 September 2018 - 04:48 PM

View PostCensport, on 11 September 2018 - 10:11 AM, said:

What Obama calls a "magic wand" is what the rest of us call "experience in the private sector".


I had forgotten all about that. Gee, I bet that's frustrating for those freeloaders. :lol:


Given Obama's experience with 'work' it doesn't surprise me he has no grasp of how businesses operate and succeed.

One more example of why handing people things without their working for and earning it is a recipe for failure.
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#12 User is offline   Severian 

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Posted 11 September 2018 - 05:43 PM

View PostTicked@TinselTown, on 11 September 2018 - 06:25 AM, said:

Instead of a cell phone and pen that violate the Constitution and the laws of the land, Trump has a magic wand that actually works within the law! Whodathunkit? :coolshades:

Maybe Stormy Daniels is just upset she didn't get more of Trump's magic wand? :rolleyes:
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