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#1 User is offline   pepperonikkid 

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  Posted 07 October 2018 - 11:39 AM

Dems see blue 'tsunami' in House as Senate path narrows



https://thehill.com
BY MAX GREENWOOD
10/07/18



Article:


Democrats have a better shot than ever at winning back the House majority with 30 days to go before the midterm elections, but have seen their chances of taking back the Senate erode amid the controversy surrounding Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court.

The Kavanaugh saga has dominated politics for a fortnight, energizing partisans on both sides of the aisle. While no one can be certain how the next four weeks will play out, the fight seems likely to hurt Republicans further with the suburban female voters seen as pivotal in many toss-up House districts.

But there are signs that the fight over Kavanaugh’s nomination has helped Republicans close a wide enthusiasm gap with Democrats, who have so far held the edge in momentum.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the GOP’s House campaign arm, saw a 279-percent spike in donations in the first week of October compared to the same period in September. The group did not provide a dollar figure for the haul.

And a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on Wednesday showed Democrats leading Republicans in voter enthusiasm by only 2 points, down from 10 points in July.

“The Republican Party does three things: cut taxes, kill terrorists and confirm judges,” Matt Gorman, a spokesman for the NRCC, said.

“When we do that, we fire up our base and appeal to independents. We’re about to face voters having done all three.”

That rising enthusiasm is a concern for Democrats. As early as a few weeks ago they had seen a narrow path to retake the Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow 51-49 majority, but those prospects appear to be dwindling.

Kavanaugh was confirmed to Supreme Court on Saturday, ending days of acrimony in the Senate after three women came forward to accuse the judge of sexual misconduct, though he has strongly denied the accusations.

The vote marks a key victory for Republicans, whose base rallied around Kavanaugh, believing the judge was the victim of a partisan smear campaign.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Saturday hailed the confirmation of Kavanaugh as a major boost to Senate Republican candidates in the midterms.

For Republicans, the biggest boost will be in a series of competitive Senate races, as Democrats must defend 10 seats in states Trump won in 2016, mainly in North Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia.

In North Dakota, two recent polls showed Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) trailing her GOP challenger, Rep. Kevin Cramer (N.D.), by 10- and 12-point margins.

And despite polling showing strong support for Kavanaugh in a state that Trump won by nearly 36 points, Heitkamp voted against confirming Kavanaugh, saying the Senate testimony of one of Kavanaugh's accusers, Christine Blasey Ford, had been a key factor in her decision.

In Indiana, Sen. Joe Donnelly, another vulnerable Democrat in a red state, also opposed the judge in the final confirmation vote in a state where polling has shown a tight race.

A recent Fox News poll showed Donnelly leading his Republican challenger Mike Braun by only 2 points — well within the survey's margin of error.

But another vulnerable red-state Democrat, Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), broke party ranks when he voted to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, mitigating the risk of GOP attacks in the final stretch of his reelection campaign against West Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

A GOP strategist told The Hill that private polling shows that the Kavanaugh nomination ranks as a top issue, alongside jobs and the economy, in West Virginia as well as in North Dakota.

Meanwhile Democrats are seeing deep-red states where they had hoped for a narrow path now slip away.

In Texas, momentum appeared to be shifting toward Sen. Ted Cruz ®, who said he raised $12 million in the third fundraising quarter of the year. And a recent Quinnipiac poll showed the senator with a 9-point lead over opponent Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D).

<Snip>

But the picture is different for the House, where strategists warn Kavanaugh’s confirmation will likely fuel Democratic turnout in the midterms.

The nomination fight sparked major protests that erupted in the Senate, and hundreds of demonstrators — many of whom were women — were arrested days before the final vote.

Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to ram through Kavanaugh’s confirmation, ignoring credible allegations of sexual misconduct and the nominee’s fiery testimony last week before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Democrats have a much more favorable map as they look to flip the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House, with many of the key battleground races being fought in suburban districts where Republicans have shown signs of struggling to win over women.

Public polls show a widening gender gap, with women tending to favor Democrats over Republicans, and outrage over Kavanaugh’s nomination could drive the wedge even deeper.

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, currently rates 31 House races as "toss-ups," while 12 are seen as "leaning Democratic," after recently shifting a slew of races in favor of Democrats, including the seats held by Reps. Kevin Yoder (R-Kan.), Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), and Mia Love (R-Utah).

The winds favoring Democrats are seen in other ways.

Sixty Democratic House hopefuls topped the $1 million mark in fundraising between July and September, while 30 passed the $2 million mark and eight raked in more than $3 million, Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said Thursday.

And the DCCC itself has also seen a surge in fundraising. The group announced Friday that small-dollar donations increased 467 percent in the last week of September compared to the prior week, the committee said Friday. The total amount raised that week was up 277 percent to $4.38 million.

Full Story

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#2 User is offline   Dean Adam Smithee 

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 12:23 PM

View Postpepperonikkid, on 07 October 2018 - 11:39 AM, said:

In Indiana, Sen. Joe Donnelly, another vulnerable Democrat in a red state, also opposed the judge in the final confirmation vote in a state where polling has shown a tight race.

A recent Fox News poll showed Donnelly leading his Republican challenger Mike Braun by only 2 points — well within the survey's margin of error.


Donnelly screwed the pooch on this one, by originally hinting that he MIGHT break ranks and support Kavanaugh but then didn't do it. He's shown fellow Dems the he might not be 'reliable' on the next vote like this, yet without giving the Republicans any reason to embrace him either.

Joe Donnelly should go home and slather himself with butter; He's toast.
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#3 User is offline   Natural Selection 

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 01:02 PM

I got your "blue tsunami" right here.

https://i.postimg.cc/cH1grH3f/blue_flush.gif
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#4 User is online   Junto 

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 04:25 PM

How can the Kavanaugh hearings simultaneously hurt Democrat Senators with lower turnout/votes but help Democrats in the House with greater turnout? How many undecideds are weighing booming economy vs the right to smear and slander ad nauseam, or more rapeugees, more illegals, more taxes, more corruption?
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#5 User is offline   Taggart Transcontinental 

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 05:08 PM

So more pipe dreams from the leftists?
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#6 User is offline   Bookdoc 

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 07:33 PM

View PostJunto, on 07 October 2018 - 04:25 PM, said:

How can the Kavanaugh hearings simultaneously hurt Democrat Senators with lower turnout/votes but help Democrats in the House with greater turnout? How many undecideds are weighing booming economy vs the right to smear and slander ad nauseam, or more rapeugees, more illegals, more taxes, more corruption?

Here's the deal-this is polling and we all know how accurate it is. Add 10-15 points to any Republican ratings and you may approach accuracy.
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#7 User is offline   Rock N' Roll Right Winger 

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 09:07 PM

View PostNatural Selection, on 07 October 2018 - 01:02 PM, said:

I got your "blue tsunami" right here.

https://i.postimg.cc/cH1grH3f/blue_flush.gif

It's time to shove their heads right into it and give them a swirly. :D
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#8 User is offline   Dean Adam Smithee 

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 09:14 AM

View PostJunto, on 07 October 2018 - 04:25 PM, said:

How can the Kavanaugh hearings simultaneously hurt Democrat Senators with lower turnout/votes but help Democrats in the House with greater turnout? How many undecideds are weighing booming economy vs the right to smear and slander ad nauseam, or more rapeugees, more illegals, more taxes, more corruption?



Yeah, I can see it just because of the 2018 Electoral Map. 1/3 of the Senate is up, and a hugely disproportionate number are not only dems (26 dems to 9 republicans) but are also in traditionally "red" and/or are in "Trump" states. Of the 26 dems, 10 are in states won by Trump in '16. whereas, of the 9 Republicans only one is in a state won by Hillary in '16 (Dean Heller in NV).

RCP right now is calling it as 49 seats "safe" for Republicans and 44 for Dems, with 7 toss-ups. I'm inclined to agree. As such, Republicans only need 1 of the 7 (plus Pence as tie-breaker); Democrats need ALL 7 to take over the Senate... and there's no way in hell they can do that. I see Republicans getting at least 3 of the 7 (TN, MT, IN) and possibly even 4 (MO or AZ).

But... with the exception of Donnelly in Indiana, this has little to do with Kavanaugh. Ever since '16 everybody KNEW this was going to be a bad year for seanate dems.
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#9 User is online   mjperry51 

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 09:36 AM

View Postpepperonikkid, on 07 October 2018 - 11:39 AM, said:

Dems see blue 'tsunami' in House as Senate path narrows


To quote George Carlin,

"I see it toooooo. . ."
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#10 User is online   KenpoDude 

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:03 AM

I'm still holding out hope that still another chunk of the silent majority will be activated next month to go and turn both houses further red. I just keep remembering that ALL of the polls on the morning of Trump's shining victory two years ago just virtually promised that Hillary would be the next POTUS with around 90% certainty.

So... that's my two cents.
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#11 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:11 AM

https://www.conservativereview.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/big-blue-wave-sized.jpg
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