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#1 User is offline   Liz 

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 03:07 PM

New Poll Shows Democratic Candidates Have Been Living In A Fantasy World

New York Magazine
By Jonathan Chait
November. 2019

Excerpt:

In 2018, Democratic candidates waded into hostile territory and flipped 40 House districts, many of them moderate or conservative in their makeup. In almost every instance, their formula centered on narrowing their target profile by avoiding controversial positions, and focusing obsessively on Republican weaknesses, primarily Donald Trumpís abuses of power and attempts to eliminate health insurance for millions of Americans.

The Democratic presidential field has largely abandoned that model. Working from the premise that the country largely agrees with them on everything, or that agreeing with the majority of voters on issues is not necessary to win, the campaign has proceeded in blissful unawareness of the extremely high chance that Trump will win again.

A new batch of swing state polls from the New York Times ought to deliver a bracing shock to Democrats. The polls find that, in six swing states ó Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona ó Trump is highly competitive. He trails Joe Biden there by the narrowest of margins, and leads Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Normally, it is a mistake to overreact to the findings of a single poll. In general, an outlier result should only marginally nudge our preexisting understanding of where public opinion stands. This case is different. To see why, you need to understand two interrelated flaws in the 2016 polling. First, they tended to under-sample white voters without college degrees. And this made them especially vulnerable to polling misses in a handful of states with disproportionately large numbers of white non-college voters. The Times found several months ago that Trump might well win 270 Electoral College votes even in the face of a larger national vote defeat than he suffered in 2016.

All this is to say that, if youíve been relying on national polls for your picture of the race, youíre probably living in la-la land. However broadly unpopular Trump may be, at the moment he is right on the cusp of victory.

What about the fact Democrats crushed Trumpís party in the midterms? The new Times polling finds many of those voters are swinging back. Almost two-thirds of the people who supported Trump in 2016, and then a Democrat in the 2018 midterms, plan to vote for Trump again in 2020.

Perhaps some of that movement represents a desire by voters to check Trumpís power and restore divided government. But the poll contains substantial evidence that Trumpís party lost the midterms for the hoary yet true reason that Republicans took unpopular positions, especially on health care, and ceded the center. Rather than learn the lesson, Democrats instead appear intent on ceding it right back to them.

The ďcenter,Ē of course, is a somewhat hazy concept, subject both to overinterpretation and misinterpretation. Capturing the center isnít the only reason politicians win elections, and some policies that Washington elites consider ďradicalĒ are in fact popular. Nonetheless, it really is true that there are a bunch of persuadable voters who can be pushed away from a party based on their perception that itís too radical.

And the Democratic presidential primary has been a disaster on this front. The debate has taken shape within a world formed by Twitter, in which the country is poised to leap into a new cultural and economic revolution, and even large chunks of the Democratic Partyís elected officials and voting base have fallen behind the times. As my colleague Ed Kilgore argues, the partyís left-wing intelligentsia have treated any appeals to voters in the center as a sign of being behind the times.

*snip*

Full Commentary
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#2 User is offline   ECtech 

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 03:31 PM

In other news, water is wet, ice is cold and the sun is very, very, hot.
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#3 User is online   mjperry51 

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 03:49 PM

Quote

The new Times polling finds many of those voters are swinging back.

No doubt in response to the insane impeachment fascination held by the Democrats, and the open adoption of socialism. . .

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#4 User is offline   Rock N' Roll Right Winger 

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:18 PM

It's not only just the democrapic candidates.

Their voters/constituentes are just as warped and deluded as they are. :nuts:

This post has been edited by Rock N' Roll Right Winger: 04 November 2019 - 04:19 PM

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#5 User is offline   MontyPython 

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 04:59 PM

I maintain what I've said all along (and yes I realize plenty of others have said the same thing): The Democrats' insistence on endless attacks and lies and "investigations" and BS charges and allegations and the relentless "impeachment" crap...etc...is only guaranteeing Trump's re-election.

So by all means keep it up, lefties! You go girls! Hold your breath 'til you turn purple, just like the spoiled children you're proving yourselves to be.

What've you got to lose...?

:giggle:
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#6 User is offline   Bookdoc 

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 06:15 PM

I do find it amazing that anyone cares what the polls say after 11/8/16. I remember analysts talking about how polling needs to be really looked at. They must have looked and figured they could shade them even more!

This post has been edited by Bookdoc: 04 November 2019 - 06:15 PM

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#7 User is online   Joe the Pagan 

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 12:24 AM

As we approach the primary I expect the knives to come out. It will be a repeat of 88. Dukakis was not the best candidate. He was the candidate with the least amount of mud on him.
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#8 User is online   RedSoloCup 

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 05:47 AM

View PostRock N, on 04 November 2019 - 04:18 PM, said:

It's not only just the democrapic candidates.

Their voters/constituentes are just as warped and deluded as they are. :nuts:


:yes:
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#9 User is offline   erp 

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 07:31 AM

Iíve been saying for a while to not read anything into the national polls. Itís the state by state polls that you have to watch.

If The democrats had in 2016, they would have seen Trump rising up. Hillary just might have campaigned in the rust belt more.

Also, if you had watched the state by state polls in 2016, you would see that weíre pretty darn close. Donít discount polls. Just watch the right ones.
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#10 User is offline   Natural Selection 

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 08:49 AM

View PostLiz, on 04 November 2019 - 03:07 PM, said:

Working from the premise that the country largely agrees with them on everything, or that agreeing with the majority of voters on issues is not necessary to win, the campaign has proceeded in blissful unawareness of the extremely high chance that Trump will win again.


Yeah...turning down 25,000 Amazon jobs with an average salary of $150,000 per year was brilliant. :rofl:

AOC and the rest of her communist followers must have been thinking "why work hard for $150k when we can work half as hard with a government job and get tons of taxpayer-funded benefits"?

Bernie Sanders to announce plan to guarantee every American a job
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