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#1 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 07:32 AM

A year out, here's four scenarios for 2020 elections
How voters feel about economy, impeachment will decide which party rules in 2021
Posted Nov 4, 2019 11:00 AM
Nathan L. Gonzales
Roll Call

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Lessons from Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia elections may not be what you think The four most likely scenarios for 2020 elections, explained Ratings update: No change for California seat Katie Hill is giving up

After Donald Trump's surprise victory in 2016, there's a saturating fear of projecting elections. Nearly three years into his presidency, and with one year left in his first term, there are multiple potential outcomes for the 2020 elections. But the scenarios aren't created equal and don't have the same chance of taking place, and they will have a profound impact on policy in the future.

Even though predicting anything to do with Trump might seem like a risk because of how typically damaging stories don't seem to impact his standing, the president is a historically unpopular figure whose job approval rating has been static for months. More voters have disapproved than approved of his job performance since about a week after he was inaugurated, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, and his approval rating has been between 41 and 44 percent for most of the past year and a half.

Trump remains incredibly popular with the Republican base, however, and the GOP has transitioned to primarily embracing a person more than a conservative ideology. That could eventually create a messy transition of power, but for now, it gives the president a high electoral floor as Republicans rally to his cause.

Meanwhile, without the White House and a clear leader, Democrats are battling for the heart and soul of their party in the presidential and congressional primaries. Whether that battle ends with a nominee from the party's most liberal wing or one closer to the middle — and how long bad feelings in the losing side's camp linger into the fall — may go a long way towards determining the odds of a Trump defeat. Still, amid the infighting, Democrats have a powerful common mission: preventing Trump from winning a second term.

The 2020 elections were already difficult to project, considering the closeness of the 2016 presidential election and narrow Republican majority in the Senate, but impeachment has thrown a new wrinkle into the cycle. Impeachment is a wild card: If independent voters believe Trump's argument that it's an abuse of congressional power driven by petty politics, it could drive up his vote in a way that a campaign with unprecedented financial resources might not.

A year before the election, there are still multiple potential outcomes for 2020, including four different combinations of partisan control of the White House and Congress. (The chances of a Democratic Senate with a Republican House are considered nil.)

The analysis that follows is based on voter behavior in past elections and historical cycles, assessing the variables that are foreseeable in 2020 and conversations with pollsters working with candidates in both parties who agreed to speak candidly on the condition they not be named.

Following are four scenarios, in order of their likelihood:

(snip)

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#2 User is online   Taggart Transcontinental 

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 08:34 AM

I think number 4 is the likely outcome. These others are just based on polling, and when you see a faux news poll running nearly 50% in Democrats just to get the perception they want to present, you know they are digging deep. So they fight to impeach the POTUS in order to wound him. That will just make us all stronger in the end and this will cause the Dem's to lose it all fantastically.
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#3 User is online   zurg 

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 08:56 AM

:biglaugh:

Another effort at causing the vote to happen the way they want it to happen. Another piece of trash dishonest opinionism posing as “journalism”.

The bottom line is absolutely THIS: Trump will win a second term, unless there’s blatant and widespread voter fraud.
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#4 User is offline   spt 

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 10:11 AM

You can not count the Kentucky governors race. It is close only because of Trump. If Trump had not stumped for Bevin he would have been soundly defeated. Bevin is highly disliked in Kentucky. He isn't a true republican either he is a New Hampshire "republican" which is actually a democrat here in KY. Look at the other major races here in KY all taken by a wide margin by Republicans.

This post has been edited by spt: 06 November 2019 - 10:13 AM

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#5 User is offline   gravelrash 

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 08:25 PM

View Postspt, on 06 November 2019 - 10:11 AM, said:

You can not count the Kentucky governors race. It is close only because of Trump. If Trump had not stumped for Bevin he would have been soundly defeated. Bevin is highly disliked in Kentucky. He isn't a true republican either he is a New Hampshire "republican" which is actually a democrat here in KY. Look at the other major races here in KY all taken by a wide margin by Republicans.


The "experts" believe that because someone shows up to vote for a state legislator, that he will also vote for the same party gubernatorial candidate. There have been many times that I have left boxes empty on a ballot because I didn't like either or any of the choices. Most times I write in my cats' names.
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#6 User is online   Rock N' Roll Right Winger 

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Posted 06 November 2019 - 09:17 PM

View Postspt, on 06 November 2019 - 10:11 AM, said:

You can not count the Kentucky governors race. It is close only because of Trump. If Trump had not stumped for Bevin he would have been soundly defeated. Bevin is highly disliked in Kentucky. He isn't a true republican either he is a New Hampshire "republican" which is actually a democrat here in KY. Look at the other major races here in KY all taken by a wide margin by Republicans.


:yeahthat: :exactly:
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#7 User is offline   Howsithangin 

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 12:26 AM

View Postgravelrash, on 06 November 2019 - 08:25 PM, said:

The "experts" believe that because someone shows up to vote for a state legislator, that he will also vote for the same party gubernatorial candidate. There have been many times that I have left boxes empty on a ballot because I didn't like either or any of the choices. Most times I write in my cats' names.

:biglaugh: :welldone:
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#8 User is offline   Dean Adam Smithee 

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:27 AM

I'll add a fifth scenario. in order of likelihood:

NOT GONNA HAPPEN: Scenario 1 - "Eviction at 1600" - WH Dem, Senate Rep, House Dem.


NOT GONNA HAPPEN EITHER: Scenario 2 - "Blue Washington" - WH Dem, Senate Dem, House Dem.

I'll lump the above two together: Barring any MAJOR change, something we don't yet know about, Trump keeps the White House. The author gets it wrong that 2018 was a "continued revolt by independent voters against Trump...". It wasn't a revolt against Trump, it was a revolt against non-Trump Republicans and the only reason we didn't ALSO lose the Senate was that the electoral map hugely favored Republicans.


NOT LIKELY BUT STILL POSSIBLE: Scenario 5 - "Blue Congress" - WH Trump, Senate Dem, House Dem.

It's numerically possible simply because more Republicans are up for re-election; the map doesn't favor Republicans to the extent it did in '16. Still, though, the map favors Republicans in a different way: Enough of the open seats are in "Trump" states that I think they'll keep the Senate... but it's not impossible for the Republicans to lose it.


WISH IT WOULD HAPPEN BUT IT WON'T: Scenario 4 - "Red Revival"
- WH Trump, Senate Rep, House Rep.

Sucks that I just don't see us taking back the house, but there are just TOO MANY congressional districts where someone has apparently been pumping massive amounts of STOOPID into the water, bolstered by these same districts being gerry-mandered into essentially lifetime appointments. How else can I explain how people like AOC, Hank Johnson, Shiela Jackson-Lee etc got elected in the first place? And if what got them there in the first place doesn't get fixed, then what gets rid of them?


MOST LIKELY: Scenario 3 - "Status Quo" - WH Trump, Senate Rep, House Dem.

Both statistically and psychologically the most likely. "Status Quo" is the default scenario for anything in Washington.
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