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#1 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 02:18 PM

Multiple sources confirm Iranian missile shot down Ukrainian airplane that killed nearly 180 people in Tehran
The Right Scoop
JAN. 9, 2020 11:49 AM
BY THE RIGHT SCOOP

<More 'Oops' Here>

According to Newsweek, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official have told them that it was indeed an Iranian missile that hit the Ukrainian airplane that killed 176 people after the missile strike on Tuesday night:

The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpot to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials told Newsweek.

Intel officials believe the missile attack was accidental…

One Pentagon and one U.S senior intelligence official told Newsweek that the Pentagon's assessment is that the incident was accidental. Iran's anti-aircraft were likely active following the country's missile attack, which came in response to the U.S. killing last week of Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, sources said.

U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the matter when contacted by Newsweek.

Of the 176 people on board, 82 were Iranian, 63 were Canadian and 11 were Ukrainian (including nine crewmembers).

Now you know why Iran immediately said it would not give Boeing the recovered black boxes for analysis. They were expecting a missile from the US in response to their attack, and ended up taking out an airplane full of innocent people instead. And of course they are trying to cover it up with this 'mechanical issue' nonsense.

(snip)

<More 'Oops' Here>
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#2 User is offline   Severian 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 03:22 PM

Some awesome military you got there Iran.
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#3 User is offline   gravelrash 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 05:04 PM

I'm missing something. Allegedly, Iran fired rockets toward US troops and installations but missed on purpose as a "face-saving" salvo and a warning to the United States and Iraq. Yet Iran used a SAM to take down a civilian passenger jet. Even if accidental, Iran warned the US of the impending rockets via Iraqi officials but didn't ground civilian flights out of its own capital during the operation?
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#4 User is online   Moderator T 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 05:47 PM

View Postgravelrash, on 09 January 2020 - 05:04 PM, said:

I'm missing something. Allegedly, Iran fired rockets toward US troops and installations but missed on purpose as a "face-saving" salvo and a warning to the United States and Iraq. Yet Iran used a SAM to take down a civilian passenger jet. Even if accidental, Iran warned the US of the impending rockets via Iraqi officials but didn't ground civilian flights out of its own capital during the operation?

Well they do tend to use Russian built anti-air missiles, and those do have a habit of targeting Ukrainian planes. :rolleyes:
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#5 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 06:24 PM

View Postgravelrash, on 09 January 2020 - 05:04 PM, said:

I'm missing something. Allegedly, Iran fired rockets toward US troops and installations but missed on purpose as a "face-saving" salvo and a warning to the United States and Iraq. Yet Iran used a SAM to take down a civilian passenger jet. Even if accidental, Iran warned the US of the impending rockets via Iraqi officials but didn't ground civilian flights out of its own capital during the operation?


The theory is that someone thought it was a U.S. response.
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#6 User is offline   gravelrash 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 06:38 PM

View PostMTP Reggie, on 09 January 2020 - 06:24 PM, said:

The theory is that someone thought it was a U.S. response.


So I heard. Still, the Iranian government could make up any excuse to shut down aid traffic for a couple of hours. Call me curious, but I would like a peek at the passenger manifesto.
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#7 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 07:38 PM

I haven't looked for the videos online yet. However, the national news showed a video someone took and released that shows the two missiles streaking towards the plane and the moment of impact. Someone else recorded the plane's fiery descent from another angle. And a CCTV security camera recorded the moment of impact.
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#8 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 08:17 PM


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#9 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 08:18 PM

Here's the ABC news segment that shows all three clips.



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#10 User is offline   gravelrash 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 08:23 PM

WWJD?

What will Justin do?
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#11 User is offline   Taggart Transcontinental 

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 09:16 PM

I posted this comment in another of our locations but I think it's probably correct at this point.

OK I said this before but first of all this was a shoot down. I suspected a S-300 Missile system because it's their shiny new toy but it appears more likely a SA-15 system. Both have proximity fusing and contact if I recall correctly. This damage on the aircraft looks like proximity damage due to the multiple holes in the aircraft.

Secondly I was pondering this earlier and it dawned on me that this may not have been an accidental shoot down.

Think about this.

Iran was 100% sure Trump would respond immediately. They were expecting a violent response thus the rockets fired from mobile systems. I suspect they shot down a Ukrainian aircraft with the intent to embroil the US and Ukraine when they claimed we knocked it out of the sky. They could have then pointed to Trump saying he was a war monger with innocent blood on his hands. Instead Trump held fire, and they had to explain away the obvious shoot down.

That's really the only real possibility I see here, you know your own airspace, and thus would not inadvertently shoot down an aircraft in your airspace. On the other hand wouldn't shooting down a Ukrainian aircraft be ironic at this time?
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#12 User is offline   zurg 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 08:07 AM

View PostTaggart Transcontinental, on 09 January 2020 - 09:16 PM, said:

I posted this comment in another of our locations but I think it's probably correct at this point.

OK I said this before but first of all this was a shoot down. I suspected a S-300 Missile system because it's their shiny new toy but it appears more likely a SA-15 system. Both have proximity fusing and contact if I recall correctly. This damage on the aircraft looks like proximity damage due to the multiple holes in the aircraft.

Secondly I was pondering this earlier and it dawned on me that this may not have been an accidental shoot down.

Think about this.

Iran was 100% sure Trump would respond immediately. They were expecting a violent response thus the rockets fired from mobile systems. I suspect they shot down a Ukrainian aircraft with the intent to embroil the US and Ukraine when they claimed we knocked it out of the sky. They could have then pointed to Trump saying he was a war monger with innocent blood on his hands. Instead Trump held fire, and they had to explain away the obvious shoot down.

That's really the only real possibility I see here, you know your own airspace, and thus would not inadvertently shoot down an aircraft in your airspace. On the other hand wouldn't shooting down a Ukrainian aircraft be ironic at this time?

I agree that the possibilities are
1) completely accidental error
2) intentional attempt to blame Trump
3) intentional shoot down because of someone(s) on board

I don’t believe option 1 is it. The various governments may settle on that, but I won’t believe it without a very very good explanation (which doesn’t consist of “Iranians are incompetent”, because this has never happened before and tensions are high all the time).

This post has been edited by zurg: 10 January 2020 - 08:07 AM

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#13 User is offline   Taggart Transcontinental 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 08:52 AM

View Postzurg, on 10 January 2020 - 08:07 AM, said:

I agree that the possibilities are
1) completely accidental error
2) intentional attempt to blame Trump
3) intentional shoot down because of someone(s) on board

I don't believe option 1 is it. The various governments may settle on that, but I won't believe it without a very very good explanation (which doesn't consist of "Iranians are incompetent", because this has never happened before and tensions are high all the time).


I spent 26 years in the military as a pilot. The term Integrated Air Defense means it is integrated in the national airspace system as well as integrated between the different levels of defense. Short, Medium and Long Range. If it were accidental, there would be more smoking holes. This aircraft literally left the ground minutes before climbing out so it wasn't coming from the borders of Iran, or off the gulf. They would have known that. The Russian's have taught them that much. Secondly they shot down one aircraft and it happened to be Ukrainian, not Iranian, Russian, Chinese or other nation. This was intentional, there is no real way around that. They were expecting us to fire rockets in response and they wanted a big splash. This would have done that, but instead Trump being unpredictable didn't respond as expected and the plane was shot down for nothing.
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#14 User is offline   zurg 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 09:47 AM

View PostTaggart Transcontinental, on 10 January 2020 - 08:52 AM, said:

I spent 26 years in the military as a pilot. The term Integrated Air Defense means it is integrated in the national airspace system as well as integrated between the different levels of defense. Short, Medium and Long Range. If it were accidental, there would be more smoking holes. This aircraft literally left the ground minutes before climbing out so it wasn't coming from the borders of Iran, or off the gulf. They would have known that. The Russian's have taught them that much. Secondly they shot down one aircraft and it happened to be Ukrainian, not Iranian, Russian, Chinese or other nation. This was intentional, there is no real way around that. They were expecting us to fire rockets in response and they wanted a big splash. This would have done that, but instead Trump being unpredictable didn't respond as expected and the plane was shot down for nothing.

I agree that this is the simplest theory (occam’s razor).

The theory of killing someone important on board, is already highly unlikely because they could do that much easier and with less of a trace. Also, this would need to be coincidental timing to blame the targeted killing on rising tensions.... too many events needing to line up, making it all even less probable.
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#15 User is offline   oki 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 10:16 AM

One of my co workers brought up a very good point. About half the passengers were Iranian, no, not that Iran gives a damn about it's citizens(that's proven), but more so this will only serve to pi$$ the masses of even more. ESPECIALLY if it was in fact intention(which I wouldn't doubt for a minute).
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#16 User is offline   AntiObama 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 11:00 AM

Within a couple of hours the Iranians knew why the plane crashed. They said it was a mechanical failure of the right engine.

There is lots of evidence that jet was shot down by the Iranians.
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#17 User is offline   scotsman 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 12:32 PM

Iran plane crash: Tehran rebuffs claims it shot down Ukrainian jet

https://www.bbc.co.u...e-east-51062369
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#18 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 01:06 PM

View Postscotsman, on 10 January 2020 - 12:32 PM, said:

Iran plane crash: Tehran rebuffs claims it shot down Ukrainian jet

https://www.bbc.co.u...e-east-51062369


Must have been a 10-year old with a toy rocket...
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#19 User is offline   scotsman 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 01:11 PM

View PostMTP Reggie, on 10 January 2020 - 01:06 PM, said:

Must have been a 10-year old with a toy rocket...


Yeah.
:whistling:
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#20 User is offline   MTP Reggie 

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Posted 10 January 2020 - 01:20 PM

View Postscotsman, on 10 January 2020 - 01:11 PM, said:

Yeah.
:whistling:


Hell... The U.S. is probably already doing this or has done it...

They know the plane's flight path. They can look at the video of the missile's flight path and estimate the launcher's location. Then look at a satellite image and SEE the damn launcher. The U,S, might even have a live satellite feed of the missile being launched. I'd bet that every square inch of Iran has a satellite on it 24/7/365.
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