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Trump says he’s fixing coronavirus testing issues

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JerryL
Posted (edited)

Trump is a liar. No question. There were only two action figures left on the shelf in 2016, and the orange one seemed to have fewer defects than the psychotic one. Still, he seems to be dealing with this pandemic in an effective and confident way.

 

We do the best we can with the resources available. And after trumps first 3 years, and his coronavirus press conference, I think hes done so

Pretty well. It offsets the liar part.

Somewhat agreed.

 

I just don't see the need to lie nor where he thinks the benefit in doing so is. He gets caught every time. When you have an entire army looking to snipe at you at every sighting, why shoot yourself?

Edited by JerryL

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Severian

 

I'm prepared for articles about people that are suspected of having the virus being stoned by neighbors or their homes are being torched to keep the virus from spreading.

Just wait, Alexa and Siri are being reprogrammed to detect if you're coughing and report you to the Ministry Of Health.

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JerryL

Just wait, Alexa and Siri are being reprogrammed to detect if you're coughing and report you to the Ministry Of Health.

Older daughter bought us the Google flavor of that thing for Christmas. She didn't really know why. She has one and doesn't like it. She just didn't know what to get us and thought we might like it. It is in a box.

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Taggart Transcontinental

I'm a big Trump supporter, but unlike leftwing cultists, I will acknowledge when Trump is doing something wrong. You may not see me highlighting it, but I will acknowledge it. The way he has SPOKEN about this ordeal has been less than perfect.

 

However, the other side of the coin is that 1) Trump and his administration's ACTIONS have been quite good, from entry restrictions to now social distancing and closing or recommended closing of public places, 2) these ACTIONS have been done with people's health as a primary objective, while not ignoring the economic impact.

 

That's why Trump still gets my support on this and other issues. His actions speak louder than his rhetoric.

 

You have a President that is trying to curb a panic. I don't think that's wrong. Additionally there are 325,000,000 Americans. This is currently impacting less than 10,000 with 150 deaths, and 126 recovered.

 

This flu season:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIMap

Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 12, 2020, 7.1% of the deaths occurring during the week ending February 29, 2020 (week 9) were due to P&I. This percentage is below the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 9.
CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 36 million flu illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths from flu.

Why aren't we pissing our collective pants over this? I mean hell you have a 7.1% chance of dropping dead from the friggin flu. Yet we really don't care about it do we? Perspective is what the media is denying us with their insanity. COVID is another craptastic virus, I get it, but we deal with worse ones. Watch what the political class demands from us in rights when this is all over. That's the real danger here, not this idiot bug. Fear is a motivator to seize all rights.

 

 

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Taggart Transcontinental

Bingo! What I take exception to is someone calling Trump supporters "His Super Duper Fans" when they're about to offer up Joe Biden as an alternative?! Yeah, right...

 

Its all about Cloward Piven. They want the nation to grind to a halt, so that we can beg for marxism to save us. Trump said it best when he was asked yesterday about the economy. He stated he's focused on the virus, the economy will roar back when the virus is solved. That's 1000% correct. The day after the virus is controlled the DJIA, NASDAC and other markets will blow the left away. I hope you are all positioned to take advantage of it.

 

I'm not the only one here who has used the "super fan" label and I don't consider every Trump supporters or Republicans who grudgingly voted for him in that group. They are out there and on this board, however. If you see yourself in that group, that's your choice.

 

Change the party identifier and look in the mirror when you say that.

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Taggart Transcontinental

Trump is a liar. No question. There were only two action figures left on the shelf in 2016, and the orange one seemed to have fewer defects than the psychotic one. Still, he seems to be dealing with this pandemic in an effective and confident way.

 

We do the best we can with the resources available. And after trumps first 3 years, and his coronavirus press conference, I think he's done so

Pretty well. It offsets the liar part.

 

I was listening to someone on the radio earlier, can't remember who. They posited if HRC had won would she have created the kind of cooperation with big business? No she would have used this to seize control of big business and push her agenda. Just like Obama did with the GM buyout, and the bank bailouts. They pushed their insane rules and cut off money making for investors. They didn't build it, but they can break it.

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Taggart Transcontinental

I just want to ignore any of the politics of this for a moment and talk about this.

 

I hope you are paying attention to what is going on Italy.

 

The death rate from this is an order of magnitude higher than the normal flu. It's able to spread a lot faster than the flu because no one (that we know of) has any immunity to it. It has the potential to overwhelm the capacity of our healthcare system to deal with serious cases. From what we've seen so far in other countries, the death rate increases significantly (from around .5-1% to 4%) when the health care system is overwhelmed and we aren't able to give everyone who is very sick proper treatment. This isn't just between countries, but comparing the death rate in Wuhan (likely to end up close to 5%) to the rest of China (likely to end up around 1%).

 

And there is a delay between the actions you take and its effect on an outbreak. Infections take 1-2 weeks to turn into identifiable illnesses and hospitalizations, and in that time each infected person can spread it to many more people. If we only wait to do anything until we are seeing a large outbreak, it's too late. Steps to slow the spread of infections are a lot more effective when they are done early rather than after it has become widespread and lots of people are hospitalized.

 

It's natural for people to not want to take it seriously until it's on their doorstep... that's human psychology. But for something like this, an ounce or prevention is worth a pound of cure.

 

A few sources:

 

1) A good read about the 1-2 week lag between the virus spreading and the spread being detected: https://medium.com/@...ie-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

2) A good visualization of how outbreaks spread and how social-distancing can slow the spread: https://www.washingt...rona-simulator/

 

1*PZesaMfoPxgYJBoQVtpmjQ.gif

 

If you are worried, go to your local hospital and see the containment and management they have in place. It's good. They are greeting people outside interviewing them and if necessary masking them or holding them outside to get them in containment. These process are now in place. That wasn't by accident. So some things are starting to work well. I want to see this lab system for testing. I hope they literally set up places out in tents in abandoned fields. That would be the best place to do it. Easy to Decontaminate, and easy to manage sick.

 

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Taggart Transcontinental

Just curious but I've a question. If any of the critics was in Trumps place exactly "What" would you (and I) have done differently?..Honestly I have no idea what to do about a pandemic like this but I will hold Trump responsible for these...errors? and make sure that I remember this in November...I mean seriously Don't yall think that Hillary would have handled this better?..and one way we can show our displeasure with the efforts of "Orange Man" would be that if and when he sends of a bunch of checks we need to just write "RETURN TO SENDER" on the envelope and send it back..I bet that would make an impression..C'mon now who's with me? Just send the checks back!...

Kestrel...

 

 

Brought to you by the definitely "not ready for Comedy time writers"

 

 

 

These errors were all in place by the bureaucracy and were on autopilot before Trump started seeing what was going on. Nowhere in the program is creating partnerships with business part of the program at government. That is Trump's idea. Alot of these innovative means like authorizing home grown testing to be done by labs around the nation. That wasn't in the bureaucratic thought process. They want centralized testing so they can control and monitor it. So yes he's done a lot.

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Taggart Transcontinental

I believe it. My cousin in Florida couldn't get one. She's 58, an asthmatic, and is feeling poorly from some kind of respiratory ailment. She also has a fever. They prescribed erythromycin, an inhaler and sent her her on her way.

 

More than likely she will be just fine. I also hope she kicks what ever it is in the butt!

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Taggart Transcontinental

Do whatever you want. But it is tad hypocritical call someone out for "what about" and then, when the opportunity arises, to "what about" them.

 

Defending President Trump and what he says, or disagreeing with him for that matter, does not hinge on anything President Obama said or did. Pulling out "If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor..." everytime someone says that DJT lied does nothing to counter the accusation that he lied.

 

Tell me, how does "What about Obama..." do anything to stop "them spread the false narratives?"

 

Lied or downplayed? I don't want a President running around screaming the house is on fire when there is smoke in the damn oven. We aren't even close to a city on fire yet. New York being a close exception. The leadership of those cities better deal with their problem. We have a republic. That means the States are responsible for almost all of this. Yet they keep pointing the finger at the POTUS for things like respirators. Want to blame someone? Blame Obama and his care, remember the tax on medical equipment? That certainly came back to bite us didn't it?

 

You can blame whom ever you want. Call it lying or what ever. I just ask one thing. Do you want Biden running this nation? I certainly don't, the man's lost his mind.

 

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JerryL

Lied or downplayed? I don't want a President running around screaming the house is on fire when there is smoke in the damn oven. We aren't even close to a city on fire yet. New York being a close exception. The leadership of those cities better deal with their problem. We have a republic. That means the States are responsible for almost all of this. Yet they keep pointing the finger at the POTUS for things like respirators. Want to blame someone? Blame Obama and his care, remember the tax on medical equipment? That certainly came back to bite us didn't it?

Is stating that if you want to get tested that you can get tested and that the tests are out there and they are "perfect tests" when the tests aren't out there and you can't get tested if you want to get tested lying or downplaying?

 

How did that do anything to not fan flames? How did that instill confidence in a time when leftists are trying to fan the flames of panic? What is the gain? That is all I am asking.

 

You can blame whom ever you want. Call it lying or what ever. I just ask one thing. Do you want Biden running this nation? I certainly don't, the man's lost his mind.

 

Happy to answer any and all questions, but how about you go first?

 

'Tell me, how does "What about Obama..." do anything to stop "them spread the false narratives?" '

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NH Populist
Posted (edited)

 

'Tell me, how does "What about Obama..." do anything to stop "them spread the false narratives?" '

 

What about Obama? How about this observation? The DOW has now deteriorated to numbers associated with the Obama presidency, having dropped 10,000 points because of concerns over COVID-19. The DOW is nothing more than an indicator of investors' optimism for the economy, through the roof under Trump, stagnant under Obama. Is that worth pointing out? I think it is. Same thing with the difference in their policy towards Iran, one fed 'em millions in cash and a path to nukes, the other's hammering 'em with sanctions. Bottom line, if you're going to take cheap shots at Trump and his supporters on a Conservative forum, you probably should have a thick skin.

Edited by NH Populist

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ThePatriot

This is likely because they don't have the capacity to quarantine and/or test everyone who shows potential symptoms of the virus. Not because it isn't serious threat and they shouldn't be tested and quarantined.

 

I hope you end up being right, but I fear that you won't be. Yes there's a lot of unnecessary fear and panic, especially people doing things like panic-buying toilet paper and water. But the social distancing could very well be what prevents this from getting out of control and killing hundreds of thousands of people.

The harm to people and families from companies that are closing their doors due to the unnecessary panic is far exceeding the harm from the virus itself.

 

I just talked to a guy yesterday who told me 80% of his company was just furloughed for a month and when that month is up, if the economic picture has not improved, the company will fold. I talked to a friend in retail who just had his hours cut and was told several stores in the chain will likely close, including the one he works at.

 

Millions of people are going to suffer severe economic damage because stupid people are panicking due to the hysteria the media has created over this.

 

It makes me mad as hell that the left, the media and sheer stupidity is driving this economic collapse.

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Dean Adam Smithee

The harm to people and families from companies that are closing their doors due to the unnecessary panic is far exceeding the harm from the virus itself.

 

I just talked to a guy yesterday who told me 80% of his company was just furloughed for a month and when that month is up, if the economic picture has not improved, the company will fold. I talked to a friend in retail who just had his hours cut and was told several stores in the chain will likely close, including the one he works at.

 

Millions of people are going to suffer severe economic damage because stupid people are panicking due to the hysteria the media has created over this.

 

It makes me mad as hell that the left, the media and sheer stupidity is driving this economic collapse.

 

YES, there is "panic", but I think the reality is somewhere in between "panic" and "business as usual"

 

Yes, there is a certain Anti-Trump bent to the US media.... but it wasn't THEM that caused, say, Hungary to all-but close the border with Germany today. There IS a "there" there even if over-hyped.

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zurg

YES, there is "panic", but I think the reality is somewhere in between "panic" and "business as usual"

 

Yes, there is a certain Anti-Trump bent to the US media.... but it wasn't THEM that caused, say, Hungary to all-but close the border with Germany today. There IS a "there" there even if over-hyped.

Pretty much this. How can anyone deny that Italians are dying at a high percentage?

 

Still, if you really think about WHY this is being done with closures etc, the reasons are very simple, and in this order of priority:

1) The medical care capacity of any state/locality must NOT become overloaded if it can be avoided.

2) Avoid deaths, particularly of the elderly.

 

We’re all going to pay for it. We’ve all lost money already. We’re all helping people we don’t know by trying to limit this outbreak. Yes, there’s an optimal spot that’s probably one with less restrictions, focus on the elderly, etc. But who’s gonna be able to pull THAT finessing off? At nation scale? I doubt anyone can.

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Timothy

Problem is, as best as I can tell, they haven't defined the right "Triage" points.

 

(And speaking PURELY from the standpoint of a First Responder (BLS, ALS, ACLS) but NOT an MD, seem like there's a VERY clear triage point where COVID-19 can be EASILY divided into two classes:

 

MINOR = All the symptoms, but WITHOUT trouble breathing. Okay treat it like a bad FLU; there's not much else you can do anyway. Bedrest. Lots of liquids, especially hot liquids such as soups. Give it 2-3 days.

 

MAJOR = All the symptoms, but WITH trouble breathing. You breath in and out, but yet don't seem to get enough "air". BELIEVE ME, you'll "know it when you see it". Normal respiration is "12"; one in-out cycle every 5 sec (12/minute). Can you hold your breath for 5 seconds without distress? Or are you gasping for air midway through? Next get a chest X-ray to rule out fluids / pneumonia. THOSE people, need a ventilator. Stat.

I'd stick all the "minor" cases and suspected minor cases in individual hotel rooms. Have systems to bring them food (left outside the door) and regular check-ups. We have plenty of hotels. And if you do it right, the logistics of bringing people food and other necessities shouldn't require special equipment or training.

 

The problem is that we are just leaving people to "self quarantine" with little monitoring and with the high possibility of infecting anyone they live with.

 

There's really not much "else", as we know it, at this time.

Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and some other countries have done a good job of identifying people who have it and isolating them, but proactively finding people they have had contact with and isolating those people as well. They've done a much better job than the US or Europe of preventing a major outbreak in their territory/country.

 

Of course, what we know tomorrow might be different than what we know today.

Exactly. This is a fast evolving situation. There are a lot of people brushing this off because things have gotten bad yet, even though history and what has happened in other countries shows that it could very bad.

 

If you are worried, go to your local hospital and see the containment and management they have in place. It's good. They are greeting people outside interviewing them and if necessary masking them or holding them outside to get them in containment. These process are now in place. That wasn't by accident. So some things are starting to work well. I want to see this lab system for testing. I hope they literally set up places out in tents in abandoned fields. That would be the best place to do it. Easy to Decontaminate, and easy to manage sick.

I agree that there are ways this is being handled well.

 

The harm to people and families from companies that are closing their doors due to the unnecessary panic is far exceeding the harm from the virus itself.

 

I just talked to a guy yesterday who told me 80% of his company was just furloughed for a month and when that month is up, if the economic picture has not improved, the company will fold. I talked to a friend in retail who just had his hours cut and was told several stores in the chain will likely close, including the one he works at.

 

Millions of people are going to suffer severe economic damage because stupid people are panicking due to the hysteria the media has created over this.

 

It makes me mad as hell that the left, the media and sheer stupidity is driving this economic collapse.

I'm not blind to the economic impact. My employment is getting hit hard by this. The same is true for at least a quarter of my friends. In Austin we had to cancel SXSW. That's huge for us, it's by far the biggest event of the year. Many, many Austin businesses depend on SXSW. For them it's the equivalent of cancelling Christmas for the retail industry. Shutting down everything definitely is not sustainable as a long term measure.

 

I think you are way underestimating the very real possibility that this could become a major disaster. Medium case scenario: hundreds of thousands of deaths. Worse case, several million. Because of the measures we have taken, I'm not very worried about the worst case. But if we were going on business as usual, I would be. Even if 90% of people only get a minor case, the other 10% is huge. A 50% infection rate and 2% mortality rate would be 3 million American dead.

 

We only have so many hospital beds, so many doctors, so much medical equivalent. If we get millions of very sick people at once (out of say, tens of millions infected), it will completely overwhelm the capacity of our health care system to treat everyone. Per the article I posted earlier, the best estimate is that when it's kept to a level where the health care system can manage it the mortality rate is in the .5-1% range. When it's not, the mortality rate is more like 4-5%.

 

Unfortunately, if it gets to the point where the system is overwhelmed and lots of people are dying, it will be too late to contain it with the measures that might have contained it earlier. It takes days/weeks for most actions that we can take to have a measurable impact. Best case scenario: All the actions we have taken to this point prevent it from becoming much worse than it is now and we never find out what could have been. And then you and I can spend the next several years speculating and debating if it was worth the cost.

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zurg
Posted (edited)

Timothy - I think the data from Italy shows that it won’t be hundreds of thousands or millions dead. We are more prepared than they were, italy is at 40k cases and 3k+ deaths today, and the daily new case numbers look like they might start slowing down soon. I’m not an expert but the numbers are what they are. Italy may end up with close to 100k infected and 5-6k+ deaths. Our population is 5x theirs but we aren’t as badly off. We’ll probably end up with same or less total deaths than they do (my guess).

 

Also, quick and simple testing would be great to have, if there was something like a pregnancy test. But there isn’t. The world (apart from China where they know a LOT more than they are telling) wasn’t ready for this at all. It would be great if there was an inexpensive test that could be applied quickly and used for self-diagnosis,

 

But whatever the method, the key component still is isolation. Lots of people object to this, especially younger people. It is what it is, but THAT is the main problem right now. Testing won’t stop the spread if people won’t test or won’t self-isolate.

Edited by zurg

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ThePatriot

I'm not blind to the economic impact. My employment is getting hit hard by this. The same is true for at least a quarter of my friends. In Austin we had to cancel SXSW. That's huge for us, it's by far the biggest event of the year. Many, many Austin businesses depend on SXSW. For them it's the equivalent of cancelling Christmas for the retail industry. Shutting down everything definitely is not sustainable as a long term measure.

I know. I live in Austin, Timothy. And we're talking about thousands of people right here where we live that are getting crushed economically because of the completely unnecessary panic.

 

I think you are way underestimating the very real possibility that this could become a major disaster. Medium case scenario: hundreds of thousands of deaths. Worse case, several million. Because of the measures we have taken, I'm not very worried about the worst case. But if we were going on business as usual, I would be. Even if 90% of people only get a minor case, the other 10% is huge. A 50% infection rate and 2% mortality rate would be 3 million American dead.

Go read Junto's post: LINK

 

We only have so many hospital beds, so many doctors, so much medical equivalent. If we get millions of very sick people at once (out of say, tens of millions infected), it will completely overwhelm the capacity of our health care system to treat everyone. Per the article I posted earlier, the best estimate is that when it's kept to a level where the health care system can manage it the mortality rate is in the .5-1% range. When it's not, the mortality rate is more like 4-5%.

You're not looking at the numbers, Timothy, and it's exactly this type of thinking that is driving all this crazy and harmful behavior. When the Swine Flu was sweeping the country in 2009, 60 million Americans were infected, 300k hospitalized and 11k died. We are nowhere near those numbers but you can bet your bottom dollar that the mortality rate is going to be similar.

 

Unfortunately, if it gets to the point where the system is overwhelmed and lots of people are dying, it will be too late to contain it with the measures that might have contained it earlier. It takes days/weeks for most actions that we can take to have a measurable impact. Best case scenario: All the actions we have taken to this point prevent it from becoming much worse than it is now and we never find out what could have been. And then you and I can spend the next several years speculating and debating if it was worth the cost.

Except I'll have history on my side of the argument, Timothy. The reaction to this virus is overblown and out of proportion and is causing far more harm than the virus ever will.

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JerryL

What about Obama? How about this observation? The DOW has now deteriorated to numbers associated with the Obama presidency, having dropped 10,000 points because of concerns over COVID-19. The DOW is nothing more than an indicator of investors' optimism for the economy, through the roof under Trump, stagnant under Obama. Is that worth pointing out? I think it is. Same thing with the difference in their policy towards Iran, one fed 'em millions in cash and a path to nukes, the other's hammering 'em with sanctions. Bottom line, if you're going to take cheap shots at Trump and his supporters on a Conservative forum, you probably should have a thick skin.

Nice rant. It addresses absolutely nothing I said, but nicely written. Well done.

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NH Populist
Posted (edited)

Nice rant. It addresses absolutely nothing I said, but nicely written. Well done.

There's nothing to address, with his workload and the 93% negative coverage he gets from the press, I tend to give the president a pass when he screws up. His overall job performance speaks for itself, as does Obama's. And as far as I know, neither is off limits in here...

Edited by NH Populist

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Shaky McSelfie

I know. I live in Austin, Timothy. And we're talking about thousands of people right here where we live that are getting crushed economically because of the completely unnecessary panic.

 

 

Go read Junto's post: LINK

 

 

You're not looking at the numbers, Timothy, and it's exactly this type of thinking that is driving all this crazy and harmful behavior. When the Swine Flu was sweeping the country in 2009, 60 million Americans were infected, 300k hospitalized and 11k died. We are nowhere near those numbers but you can bet your bottom dollar that the mortality rate is going to be similar.

 

 

Except I'll have history on my side of the argument, Timothy. The reaction to this virus is overblown and out of proportion and is causing far more harm than the virus ever will.

Patriot, you are spot on! This overhyped “crisis” has gotten to levels of hysteria I have never seen.

 

I call on businesses everyday, and what I hear is a bunker down mentality. They are discussing ways to cut their workforce, not expand their business.

 

And it is completely ignorant to use Italy as a barometer. First off, Italy has a much older population. Second, Italy had Chinese labor flying in and out from Wuhan during the outbreak.

 

I’m just sick of this BS hype. It’s is destroying our nation economically. And it’s a damn shame.

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Shaky McSelfie

I'd stick all the "minor" cases and suspected minor cases in individual hotel rooms. Have systems to bring them food (left outside the door) and regular check-ups. We have plenty of hotels. And if you do it right, the logistics of bringing people food and other necessities shouldn't require special equipment or training.

 

The problem is that we are just leaving people to "self quarantine" with little monitoring and with the high possibility of infecting anyone they live with.

 

 

Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and some other countries have done a good job of identifying people who have it and isolating them, but proactively finding people they have had contact with and isolating those people as well. They've done a much better job than the US or Europe of preventing a major outbreak in their territory/country.

 

 

Exactly. This is a fast evolving situation. There are a lot of people brushing this off because things have gotten bad yet, even though history and what has happened in other countries shows that it could very bad.

 

 

I agree that there are ways this is being handled well.

 

 

I'm not blind to the economic impact. My employment is getting hit hard by this. The same is true for at least a quarter of my friends. In Austin we had to cancel SXSW. That's huge for us, it's by far the biggest event of the year. Many, many Austin businesses depend on SXSW. For them it's the equivalent of cancelling Christmas for the retail industry. Shutting down everything definitely is not sustainable as a long term measure.

 

I think you are way underestimating the very real possibility that this could become a major disaster. Medium case scenario: hundreds of thousands of deaths. Worse case, several million. Because of the measures we have taken, I'm not very worried about the worst case. But if we were going on business as usual, I would be. Even if 90% of people only get a minor case, the other 10% is huge. A 50% infection rate and 2% mortality rate would be 3 million American dead.

 

We only have so many hospital beds, so many doctors, so much medical equivalent. If we get millions of very sick people at once (out of say, tens of millions infected), it will completely overwhelm the capacity of our health care system to treat everyone. Per the article I posted earlier, the best estimate is that when it's kept to a level where the health care system can manage it the mortality rate is in the .5-1% range. When it's not, the mortality rate is more like 4-5%.

 

Unfortunately, if it gets to the point where the system is overwhelmed and lots of people are dying, it will be too late to contain it with the measures that might have contained it earlier. It takes days/weeks for most actions that we can take to have a measurable impact. Best case scenario: All the actions we have taken to this point prevent it from becoming much worse than it is now and we never find out what could have been. And then you and I can spend the next several years speculating and debating if it was worth the cost.

So if you were in charge you would take over hotels and force people into labor providing for the ones forced into the hotels that you took over by force, is that about right?

 

These things don’t happen in a vacuum. You have to force them, right?

 

Say, aren’t you a Bernie Bro?

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Dean Adam Smithee

You're not looking at the numbers, Timothy, and it's exactly this type of thinking that is driving all this crazy and harmful behavior. When the Swine Flu was sweeping the country in 2009, 60 million Americans were infected, 300k hospitalized and 11k died. We are nowhere near those numbers but you can bet your bottom dollar that the mortality rate is going to be similar.

 

There are some similarities to swine flu but also one HUGE difference that IMHO makes all the difference in the world.

 

Incubation for swine flu was 1 to 4 days. Meaning, if you catch it, you won't show symptoms for a day or so and almost always within 4 days. If you pass it on to someone else, then they will have symptoms within 1-4 days. There's a practical limit to how many you can spread it to; the average person typically sees the same people day after day.

 

A 14-day incubation is totally different, not least because the contact vector becomes exponential rather than linear. Suppose "Patient Zero" has COVID-19. Day 1, not knowing, he passes it on to 2 unique people. Day 2, they each pass it to 2 unique people... yada yada yada... Day 14, "Patient Zero" finally has symptoms... after it's been passed to 16,384 others.

 

Yeah, okay, "only" 16,384 people. How long to infect the entire USA? only merely another 14 days, so that the exponent is 228 rather than 214. 214= 16,384 whereas 228 = 268,435,456... almost the entire US population.

 

Problem is, a 14-day incubation window throws any mathematical estimates out the window, so to speak. Now it's no longer the "usual" people you see day to day, but church on sunday, the shopping mall, the basketball game, etc. etc. Sure, the country may be essentially on Lockdown NOW going into the weekend of March 21/22, but how about 14 days ago going into the weekend of March 7/8 when this was barely a blip on the news???

 

I've said elsewhere that we're about 10 days behind Italy; I don't think we yet have a grasp on how many have been infected who may have unknowingly caught in in the past 14 days. The next 10-14 days will be very telling.

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ThePatriot

There are some similarities to swine flu but also one HUGE difference that IMHO makes all the difference in the world.

 

Incubation for swine flu was 1 to 4 days. Meaning, if you catch it, you won't show symptoms for a day or so and almost always within 4 days. If you pass it on to someone else, then they will have symptoms within 1-4 days. There's a practical limit to how many you can spread it to; the average person typically sees the same people day after day.

 

A 14-day incubation is totally different, not least because the contact vector becomes exponential rather than linear. Suppose "Patient Zero" has COVID-19. Day 1, not knowing, he passes it on to 2 unique people. Day 2, they each pass it to 2 unique people... yada yada yada... Day 14, "Patient Zero" finally has symptoms... after it's been passed to 16,384 others.

 

Yeah, okay, "only" 16,384 people. How long to infect the entire USA? only merely another 14 days, so that the exponent is 228 rather than 214. 214= 16,384 whereas 228 = 268,435,456... almost the entire US population.

 

Problem is, a 14-day incubation window throws any mathematical estimates out the window, so to speak. Now it's no longer the "usual" people you see day to day, but church on sunday, the shopping mall, the basketball game, etc. etc. Sure, the country may be essentially on Lockdown NOW going into the weekend of March 21/22, but how about 14 days ago going into the weekend of March 7/8 when this was barely a blip on the news???

 

I've said elsewhere that we're about 10 days behind Italy; I don't think we yet have a grasp on how many have been infected who may have unknowingly caught in in the past 14 days. The next 10-14 days will be very telling.

According to current numbers link there are 16,638 cases in the US and 225 deaths which equates to a 1.3% mortality rate. Considering the fact that there are thousands of people who have it and don't know it and thousands who were misdiagnosed, the actual mortality rate is probably much more in line with the flu.

 

Know what that tells me? All this panic is misguided, unnecessary and causing way more harm to people than the virus ever will. Just my 2 cents.

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