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pepperonikkid

Stop the 'anecdotal' nonsense

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zurg

You want to know what is also anecdotal? If we have reached the peak and flattened the curve everybody will say, see the lockdowns worked. Since there were no double blind scientific studies, we should not believe what they say about the stay at home orders. Any relation to flattening the curve is coincidental and not causation. It is “anecdotal”.

Either way you go, it’s anecdotal, if we want to be fair. Large scale societal orders don’t have a control group.

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johnnybravo

Either way you go, it’s anecdotal, if we want to be fair. Large scale societal orders don’t have a control group.

Exactly right.

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JerryL

Yes, there are 'anecdotes' that hydroxychloroquine works... countered by at least 3 controlled studies that say it doesn't - and least not to the extent of being a "6 day miracle cure" as claimed in the anecdotes - plus a 4th study in Sweden that had to be cancelled because of side effects plus a 5th study at NYU med school in New York that found potentially dangerous heart irregularities in about 10% of the test subjects.

 

Yes there are 'anecdotes', just as there are anecdotes that Bigfoot and Nessie and the Easter Bunny all exist and that Elvis is still alive.

 

Some may choose to believe in the Easter Bunny. I choose to believe in the science.

 

For that matter, I've heard 'anecdotally' that Socialism is a good thing. Never mind that it fails every time it's tried. Say, maybe HCQ is just like that will fail every time it's tried until the "right" people are put in charge, eh?

In the long-term, OK. Fair enough.

 

In the short-term, why? Is the drug that has been around for 60 years, when prescribed and administered by a licensed physician, making things worse?

 

Are there "anecdotal" studies that show that using the drug has exacerbated the virus and the illness in any significant number of patients?

 

If not, and since we DO have all the snippets indicating that it is pretty darn effective, WTF Adam? Why WOULDN'T you want it used?

 

IF you get COVID-19, which I hope you don't, will you refuse treatment with Hydroxychloroquine? Simple question...will you give a straight answer?

 

The only question you actually answered was in your next reply when you said you would refuse the drug. But that's OK. Carry on.

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Dean Adam Smithee

The only question you actually answered was in your next reply when you said you would refuse the drug. But that's OK. Carry on.

 

Thank you, I will.

 

And since we're still talking about 'anecdotes', I will raise a question or two of my own:

 

Where are all the 'anecdotes' from the PATIENTS who have (allegedly) been cured with HCQ or whatever?

 

Dr. Raoult in France initially claimed 75% success with 24 patients. Shouldn't there then be 18 testimonials or 'anecdotes' out there? Or how about the the good doctor's later report of 98% of the 1061 as posted by Kestrel above for another 1039? Or the 500-ish that Dr. Z in upstate New York claimed? By my count that's at least 1,557 who AREN'T stepping forward with their own 'anecdotes' of "Yes, that's true".

 

Where are they?

 

I will spot you that there IS the occasional gadfly tabloid story. There's ALWAYS a gadfly story in the tabloids, it's what they DO. I googled "I was cured by hydroxychloroquine" for 10 pages and finally found (1): A NYC tabloid with the story of a gadfly NYC councilman who after a dose of HCQ "felt better almost immediately"... for a cure that (allegedly) takes 6-8 days. I'll counter that with my own 'anecdote': With my own bout with what might-or-might-not-have-been back in Late Feb/Early Mar I was extremely thirsty in the middle of the night and got up and had a tall glass of water. I "felt somewhat better almost immediately". Doesn't mean water was the "cure"?

 

We're almost a month in to when these "miracle" stories were first put out there, and orgs all over the world started trials. For something that (allegedly) cures 90+% in 6-8 days? Shouldn't there now be hundreds, if not thousands, of "Anecdotes" from such patients?

 

Where are they?

 

Doesn't that make ANYONE here at least a bit skeptical?

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zurg

Thank you, I will.

 

And since we're still talking about 'anecdotes', I will raise a question or two of my own:

 

Where are all the 'anecdotes' from the PATIENTS who have (allegedly) been cured with HCQ or whatever?

 

Dr. Raoult in France initially claimed 75% success with 24 patients. Shouldn't there then be 18 testimonials or 'anecdotes' out there? Or how about the the good doctor's later report of 98% of the 1061 as posted by Kestrel above for another 1039? Or the 500-ish that Dr. Z in upstate New York claimed? By my count that's at least 1,557 who AREN'T stepping forward with their own 'anecdotes' of "Yes, that's true".

 

Where are they?

 

I will spot you that there IS the occasional gadfly tabloid story. There's ALWAYS a gadfly story in the tabloids, it's what they DO. I googled "I was cured by hydroxychloroquine" for 10 pages and finally found (1): A NYC tabloid with the story of a gadfly NYC councilman who after a dose of HCQ "felt better almost immediately"... for a cure that (allegedly) takes 6-8 days. I'll counter that with my own 'anecdote': With my own bout with what might-or-might-not-have-been back in Late Feb/Early Mar I was extremely thirsty in the middle of the night and got up and had a tall glass of water. I "felt somewhat better almost immediately". Doesn't mean water was the "cure"?

 

We're almost a month in to when these "miracle" stories were first put out there, and orgs all over the world started trials. For something that (allegedly) cures 90+% in 6-8 days? Shouldn't there now be hundreds, if not thousands, of "Anecdotes" from such patients?

 

Where are they?

 

Doesn't that make ANYONE here at least a bit skeptical?

Now that you mention it .... NO!

 

If anything, having no reports makes me LESS skeptical. Because the MSM will do everything they can to keep good Trump stories out. Think about it. The MSM have been against this Trump endorsement from the get-go, so do you really not think they’ll try to under report and hide all positive evidence the best they can? Of course they will. Geez.

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Ladybird

Now that you mention it .... NO!

 

If anything, having no reports makes me LESS skeptical. Because the MSM will do everything they can to keep good Trump stories out. Think about it. The MSM have been against this Trump endorsement from the get-go, so do you really not think they’ll try to under report and hide all positive evidence the best they can? Of course they will. Geez.

 

So all of the media, the world over, is conspiring to keep the success of the patients in the doctors care under wraps to hurt Trump?

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Dean Adam Smithee

Now that you mention it .... NO!

 

If anything, having no reports makes me LESS skeptical. Because the MSM will do everything they can to keep good Trump stories out. Think about it. The MSM have been against this Trump endorsement from the get-go, so do you really not think they’ll try to under report and hide all positive evidence the best they can? Of course they will. Geez.

 

It's not that there's been "No" reports. There HAVE BEEN reports that not only that this doesn't significantly work, but when it does there are consequences.

 

How far do I have to go to prove that the world isn't flat? Name a benchmark, ANY benchmark.

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zurg

It's not that there's been "No" reports. There HAVE BEEN reports that not only that this doesn't significantly work, but when it does there are consequences.

 

How far do I have to go to prove that the world isn't flat? Name a benchmark, ANY benchmark.

The fact that there are no positive outcomes reported proves my hypothesis. QED.

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mjperry51

Thank you, I will.

 

And since we're still talking about 'anecdotes', I will raise a question or two of my own:

 

Where are all the 'anecdotes' from the PATIENTS who have (allegedly) been cured with HCQ or whatever?

 

Dr. Raoult in France initially claimed 75% success with 24 patients. Shouldn't there then be 18 testimonials or 'anecdotes' out there? Or how about the the good doctor's later report of 98% of the 1061 as posted by Kestrel above for another 1039? Or the 500-ish that Dr. Z in upstate New York claimed? By my count that's at least 1,557 who AREN'T stepping forward with their own 'anecdotes' of "Yes, that's true".

 

Where are they?

 

I will spot you that there IS the occasional gadfly tabloid story. There's ALWAYS a gadfly story in the tabloids, it's what they DO. I googled "I was cured by hydroxychloroquine" for 10 pages and finally found (1): A NYC tabloid with the story of a gadfly NYC councilman who after a dose of HCQ "felt better almost immediately"... for a cure that (allegedly) takes 6-8 days. I'll counter that with my own 'anecdote': With my own bout with what might-or-might-not-have-been back in Late Feb/Early Mar I was extremely thirsty in the middle of the night and got up and had a tall glass of water. I "felt somewhat better almost immediately". Doesn't mean water was the "cure"?

 

We're almost a month in to when these "miracle" stories were first put out there, and orgs all over the world started trials. For something that (allegedly) cures 90+% in 6-8 days? Shouldn't there now be hundreds, if not thousands, of "Anecdotes" from such patients?

 

Where are they?

 

Doesn't that make ANYONE here at least a bit skeptical?

 

My wife's cousin was given HC in the hospital. Second dose cleared most symptoms.

 

A portion of her Facebook post:

 

My symptoms continued while I was on a zpack, Tylenol, and antibiotics through my IV. I took zofran for nausea and heparin shots in the belly. The nausea , shaking and temperature was brutal. Breathing on the oxygen tube is difficult. It wasn't until my doctor introduced hydroxychloroquine that I started to turn the corner. After the second dose I was a new person. Smell came back, nausea subsided, after 14 days my temperature finally went away, no more sweating no vomiting.

There's one "anecdote". . .

 

cool_shades.gif

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kestrel

My wife's cousin was given HC in the hospital. Second dose cleared most symptoms.

 

A portion of her Facebook post:

 

 

There's one "anecdote". . .

 

cool_shades.gif

Here's another!

Kestrel...

 

 

washingtontimes.com

Michigan Democrat thanks Trump, hydroxychloroquine for helping save her life from coronavirus

Valerie Richardson Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett said she began feeling relief “in less than two hours” after being prescribed the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine on March 31 to treat her COVID-19 case. more > A Democratic lawmaker from Detroit has credited the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine — and President Trump — for her recovery from the novel coronavirus.

 

Michigan state Rep. Karen Whitsett said she began feeling relief “in less than two hours” after being prescribed the drug on March 31. She and her husband began experiencing symptoms of COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, on March 18, according to the Detroit Free Press.

 

Mr. Trump has touted hydroxychloroquine, or HCQ, as a possible “game changer” in the pandemic fight, touching off pushback from media outlets and others who note that the drug has not been FDA approved for COVID-19.

 

Last week, the FDA issued an emergency-use authorization for the drug amid anecdotal reports of its effectiveness from doctors and patients. The drug has long been FDA-approved for malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.

 

As far as Ms. Whitsett was concerned, the drug made an enormous difference. Asked if she thought Mr. Trump saved her life, she said, “Yes, I do,” and “I do thank him for that.”

 

“It has a lot to do with the president … bringing it up,” Ms. Whitsett said. “He is the only person who has the power to make it a priority.”

 

Congratulations to State Representative
of Michigan. So glad you are getting better!

 

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

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zurg

Uh-oh. I’m in trouble now.... :whistle:

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kestrel

Uh-oh. I'm in trouble now.... :whistle:

Why?

 

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zurg
Posted (edited)

Because I said this, I expect Adam to tell me the anecdotes prove that I’m wrong (even though they prove that HE is wrong, which was my purpose all along, which is the reason for my whistle emoji!)

 

Boy this is complicated, man, I feel like a woman.

 

The fact that there are no positive outcomes reported proves my hypothesis. QED.

Edited by zurg

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JerryL

Thank you, I will.

 

And since we're still talking about 'anecdotes', I will raise a question or two of my own:

 

Where are all the 'anecdotes' from the PATIENTS who have (allegedly) been cured with HCQ or whatever?

 

Dr. Raoult in France initially claimed 75% success with 24 patients. Shouldn't there then be 18 testimonials or 'anecdotes' out there? Or how about the the good doctor's later report of 98% of the 1061 as posted by Kestrel above for another 1039? Or the 500-ish that Dr. Z in upstate New York claimed? By my count that's at least 1,557 who AREN'T stepping forward with their own 'anecdotes' of "Yes, that's true".

 

Where are they?

 

I will spot you that there IS the occasional gadfly tabloid story. There's ALWAYS a gadfly story in the tabloids, it's what they DO. I googled "I was cured by hydroxychloroquine" for 10 pages and finally found (1): A NYC tabloid with the story of a gadfly NYC councilman who after a dose of HCQ "felt better almost immediately"... for a cure that (allegedly) takes 6-8 days. I'll counter that with my own 'anecdote': With my own bout with what might-or-might-not-have-been back in Late Feb/Early Mar I was extremely thirsty in the middle of the night and got up and had a tall glass of water. I "felt somewhat better almost immediately". Doesn't mean water was the "cure"?

 

We're almost a month in to when these "miracle" stories were first put out there, and orgs all over the world started trials. For something that (allegedly) cures 90+% in 6-8 days? Shouldn't there now be hundreds, if not thousands, of "Anecdotes" from such patients?

 

Where are they?

 

Doesn't that make ANYONE here at least a bit skeptical?

So your answer is "No. I don't have any evidence that using the drug makes things worse."

 

Could have just said that.

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RationalThought
Posted (edited)

If Dr. Zenko's mythical 100% cure takes only 6 to 8 days as he's claimed, why aren't we hearing at least 'preliminary' results from the NY study or any other LEGIT study?

Because the New World Order has invested BILLIONS and BILLIONS over DECADES on vaccines which HAVE to be implemented as the solution. At an average cost of $50 a shot, that's a $350 billion yearly revenue stream (combined with society and population control) just for this one virus they have been counting on tapping into at this point in time.

 

Any other "solution" to this "Plandemic" is going to receive a full court press from the globalist Elites to discredit and delay an implementation. As a businessman, I'm sure you can understand the NWO's panic at the idea that their vaccines aren't actually needed and their "product" is now worthless.

 

As always when wondering why something is happening, FOLLOW THE MONEY!!!

 

I think I can consider your question here "asked and answered".

 

 

RationalThought

Edited by RationalThought

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AntonToo

Stop the 'anecdotal' nonsense

 

I wasn't able to post this since this thread popped up (due to mods here deligently supressing views upsetting to resident righty sensibilities)

 

May as well do it now:

 

 

Yes lets stop the nonsense. These chloro/hydroquine drugs are at best a ticket to no-man's land, a crude half-fix.

 

1. Make SARS-CoV-2 testing much more widely available - to better diagnose carriers.

2. Make SARS-CoV-2 antibody test available - to know who is immune.

3. Get SARS antibody shots tested and mass produced - instant 8-10 week immunity. That's the real silver bullet here if there will be one at all.

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SARGE

I wasn't able to post this since this thread popped up (due to mods here deligently supressing views upsetting to resident righty sensibilities)

 

May as well do it now:

 

 

Yes lets stop the nonsense. These chloro/hydroquine drugs are at best a ticket to no-man's land, a crude half-fix.

 

1. Make SARS-CoV-2 testing much more widely available - to better diagnose carriers.

2. Make SARS-CoV-2 antibody test available - to know who is immune.

3. Get SARS antibody shots tested and mass produced - instant 8-10 week immunity. That's the real silver bullet here if there will be one at all.

 

Paranoid much, AntonFool?

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zurg

Because the New World Order has invested BILLIONS and BILLIONS over DECADES on vaccines which HAVE to be implemented as the solution. At an average cost of $50 a shot, that's a $350 billion yearly revenue stream (combined with society and population control) just for this one virus they have been counting on tapping into at this point in time.

 

Any other "solution" to this "Plandemic" is going to receive a full court press from the globalist Elites to discredit and delay an implementation. As a businessman, I'm sure you can understand the NWO's panic at the idea that their vaccines aren't actually needed and their "product" is now worthless.

 

As always when wondering why something is happening, FOLLOW THE MONEY!!!

 

I think I can consider your question here "asked and answered".

 

 

RationalThought

I agree with the underlying premise that basic cures or at least amelioration are being fought against in favor of vaccines (by the way, I think IV vitamin C is one of the best relatively inexpensive and helpful remedies).

 

But that alone doesn’t make covid19 not dangerous. It doesn’t make it not a pandemic. It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to do what we can with the remedies we do have, right now. You must understand that those in control, are in control. Your best counter attack is to learn ways around their nefarious ways.

 

Just because you understand the motivation, and can take a good guess at the methodology employed, doesn’t mean it can’t kill you. Protect yourself first, attack back later.

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Severian

Apropos to the "anecdotal" issue and lack of double blind tests:

 

Dr. Fauci’s own career-making medical research had no clinical control group, used historic controls #coronavirus

 

 

For weeks Dr. Anthony Fauci has dismissed all of the mounting evidence for the efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine treatments for Covid-19 as “anecdotal” and “the slightest hint of evidence” because it doesn’t come from clinically controlled trials. That is just wrong. Valid statistics do need a control group but the control does not have to be clinical.

 

New York alone has recently amassed many thousands of case histories of Corona patients who were given various HCQ treatments (HCQ plus zinc and/or Azithromycin in various dosages) as doctors swapped information about what seemed to be working. Despite the lack of a clinical control group (doctors are not withholding what they estimate to be the best medicine from half of their gravely ill patients), there still is a massive control group in place: the hundreds of thousands of case histories of Corona patients all around the world who never received any Hydroxy treatments.

 

The outcomes from large samples of both groups just need to be tallied and the statistical significance of the difference in mortality will far exceed what could ever be achieved through clinical trials (unless the CDC is planning on killing an awful lot of people by withholding already known to be life-saving medicine from them).

 

But Dr. Fauci has no plans to look at this huge body of field data. He plans to wait instead until clinically controlled trials are completed sometime this summer.

 

...

 

Forget the fantastic progress that hundreds of doctors working feverishly on thousands of patients have already made in discovering “which [treatments] are working and which are not.” What’s the hurry? We’ll just re-invent the wheel.

 

Denigration of trials that use non-clinical controls is a 180° turn for Dr. Fauci

 

It turns out that Dr. Fauci knows as well as anybody that non-clinical control groups support perfectly valid statistical evidence because his own career-making medical research was entirely dependent on historic controls (comparing his treatment outcomes to historic mortality rates), with no clinical control groups ever involved.

 

 

Link

 

Well worth reading the whole thing.

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RationalThought

I agree with the underlying premise that basic cures or at least amelioration are being fought against in favor of vaccines (by the way, I think IV vitamin C is one of the best relatively inexpensive and helpful remedies).

 

But that alone doesn’t make covid19 not dangerous. It doesn’t make it not a pandemic. It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to do what we can with the remedies we do have, right now. You must understand that those in control, are in control. Your best counter attack is to learn ways around their nefarious ways.

 

Just because you understand the motivation, and can take a good guess at the methodology employed, doesn’t mean it can’t kill you. Protect yourself first, attack back later.

How do YOU know how dangerous this "novel" coronavirus is? Because the data does NOT lead to any sort of firm conclusion that this IS as dangerous as the reaction would seem to warrant.

 

For example, the data coming out of those countries WITHOUT any sort of agenda and the most reliable data (Iceland and South Korea), the data supports a disease with roughly the same virulence as a typical seasonal flu. This "best fit" I currently have, and the variance in areas like China, Italy, New York, etc., is a result of bad data collection, bad analysis, and ulterior motives.

 

Everyone who gets this "novel" coronavirus will die. Everyone who does NOT get this "novel" coronavirus will die. The question is how, when, and what they do BEFORE they die.

 

People can live in fear of whatever they chose, this "novel" coronavirus included. That fear will have possibly destroyed half of the jobs out there and 1/4 of the net value of human accomplishment in the last 12,000 years. That's a HUGE price to pay for fear I don't see the data supporting.

 

 

RationalThought

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kestrel

How do YOU know how dangerous this "novel" coronavirus is? Because the data does NOT lead to any sort of firm conclusion that this IS as dangerous as the reaction would seem to warrant.

 

For example, the data coming out of those countries WITHOUT any sort of agenda and the most reliable data (Iceland and South Korea), the data supports a disease with roughly the same virulence as a typical seasonal flu. This "best fit" I currently have, and the variance in areas like China, Italy, New York, etc., is a result of bad data collection, bad analysis, and ulterior motives.

 

Everyone who gets this "novel" coronavirus will die. Everyone who does NOT get this "novel" coronavirus will die. The question is how, when, and what they do BEFORE they die.

 

People can live in fear of whatever they chose, this "novel" coronavirus included. That fear will have possibly destroyed half of the jobs out there and 1/4 of the net value of human accomplishment in the last 12,000 years. That's a HUGE price to pay for fear I don't see the data supporting.

 

 

RationalThought

 

 

Just a quick one R/T just how much is one life worth...10?..1000?..if you eliminate the quarantine what are the numbers?..how many will die because of your actions?...ok..so how many will die if you DO NOT eliminate the quarantine..Gawd!..I'm damn glad I'm not the one that has to make that decision..I think Id have probably scrapped the lock down by now...at the very least some kind of phased in approach and then if Nothing happens I think I'd want to lynch a few of these so called experts..But like I said I'm glad I don't have to bear the responsibility.

Kestrel...

 

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zurg
Posted (edited)

How do YOU know how dangerous this "novel" coronavirus is? Because the data does NOT lead to any sort of firm conclusion that this IS as dangerous as the reaction would seem to warrant.

 

For example, the data coming out of those countries WITHOUT any sort of agenda and the most reliable data (Iceland and South Korea), the data supports a disease with roughly the same virulence as a typical seasonal flu. This "best fit" I currently have, and the variance in areas like China, Italy, New York, etc., is a result of bad data collection, bad analysis, and ulterior motives.

 

Everyone who gets this "novel" coronavirus will die. Everyone who does NOT get this "novel" coronavirus will die. The question is how, when, and what they do BEFORE they die.

 

People can live in fear of whatever they chose, this "novel" coronavirus included. That fear will have possibly destroyed half of the jobs out there and 1/4 of the net value of human accomplishment in the last 12,000 years. That's a HUGE price to pay for fear I don't see the data supporting.

 

 

RationalThought

Okay.

 

Please don’t take this the wrong way but I’m tired of arguing whether it’s dangerous or just like the flu. I know I previously posted with a different mindset, so it’s not your fault that I don’t want to discuss that angle. We all see the data as it evolves, but none of us know yet what the final verdict will be. So I’ll wait to see how it all shakes out danger-wise and mortality rate wise.

 

Also, all along, I’ve actually been much more interested in the China angle. Why have flus been coming over from there for decades? Why SARS and bird flu and COVID19? What’s next?

 

Is China doing this deliberately, or accidentally? Are they trying to say in pretty clear terms to the US to F off? Are they trying to provoke us, and Europe?

 

I’m looking at this as a deliberate act. That’s why I assign danger to it. I may be wrong about the danger level, but better err on side of caution when dealing with an engineered weapon. You call it fear. That’s fine. Fear is a good motivator.

 

Besides, Trump and the governors are handling this quite well. Unexpectedly well, as a group. The timing to talk about opening up in phases, fairly soon, while meeting certain criteria is the right way to do it. It’ll be just a couple of weeks to a month for the majority of states.

Edited by zurg

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johnnybravo

How do YOU know how dangerous this "novel" coronavirus is? Because the data does NOT lead to any sort of firm conclusion that this IS as dangerous as the reaction would seem to warrant.

 

For example, the data coming out of those countries WITHOUT any sort of agenda and the most reliable data (Iceland and South Korea), the data supports a disease with roughly the same virulence as a typical seasonal flu. This "best fit" I currently have, and the variance in areas like China, Italy, New York, etc., is a result of bad data collection, bad analysis, and ulterior motives.

 

Everyone who gets this "novel" coronavirus will die. Everyone who does NOT get this "novel" coronavirus will die. The question is how, when, and what they do BEFORE they die.

 

People can live in fear of whatever they chose, this "novel" coronavirus included. That fear will have possibly destroyed half of the jobs out there and 1/4 of the net value of human accomplishment in the last 12,000 years. That's a HUGE price to pay for fear I don't see the data supporting.

 

 

RationalThought

I agree.

 

If this virus were as dangerous as some are making it out to be, then there would be no need for the government to tell you to stay home. If people were dropping dead left and right, everyone would be terrified to to get it so they would lock themselves up and not leave the house. The majority of people have weighed their their options and have decided that this virus isn’t all that bad because they are leaving their houses to get groceries and to stroll around the neighborhood. Anyone here who has left their house in the last 3 days, for whatever reason, have decided to take their chances on getting infected. Trust me, if this virus were really bad, nothing would be open for business and everyone would be hunkered down without the government telling them to do so. In fact, the government would have to force certain businesses to open up.

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RationalThought
Posted (edited)

Just a quick one R/T just how much is one life worth...10?..1000?..if you eliminate the quarantine what are the numbers?..how many will die because of your actions?...ok..so how many will die if you DO NOT eliminate the quarantine..Gawd!..I'm damn glad I'm not the one that has to make that decision..I think Id have probably scrapped the lock down by now...at the very least some kind of phased in approach and then if Nothing happens I think I'd want to lynch a few of these so called experts..But like I said I'm glad I don't have to bear the responsibility.

Kestrel...

It's calculated much like described in this

(NOT for the easily offended).

 

That's what actuaries do. I almost went that path out of college, but decided against what is essentially highly paid long division for the rest of my life (nothing wrong with it, it would have been mind-numbing and soul-sucking for me to do). I could have had that sort of responsibility, and passed for many of the reasons you cite here.

 

But I can and do criticize those who do make the decisions when I think they are making the wrong ones. Sort of like kvetching at the television at what an idiot the coach was to call that play.

 

 

RationalThought

 

ETA The metric which should be under consideration is not "deaths", but "years of life removed". Everyone dies; the question is how much SOONER a person died because of a given input like a virus or a preexisting condition.

Edited by RationalThought

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AntonToo

How do YOU know how dangerous this "novel" coronavirus is? Because the data does NOT lead to any sort of firm conclusion that this IS as dangerous as the reaction would seem to warrant.

 

For example, the data coming out of those countries WITHOUT any sort of agenda and the most reliable data (Iceland and South Korea), the data supports a disease with roughly the same virulence as a typical seasonal flu. This "best fit" I currently have, and the variance in areas like China, Italy, New York, etc., is a result of bad data collection, bad analysis, and ulterior motives.

 

Everyone who gets this "novel" coronavirus will die. Everyone who does NOT get this "novel" coronavirus will die. The question is how, when, and what they do BEFORE they die.

 

People can live in fear of whatever they chose, this "novel" coronavirus included. That fear will have possibly destroyed half of the jobs out there and 1/4 of the net value of human accomplishment in the last 12,000 years. That's a HUGE price to pay for fear I don't see the data supporting.

 

 

RationalThought

 

Ignorant nonsense.

 

Temporary pause in economy IS NOT somehow equal to “1/4 of human accomplishment” that statement is a ridiculous discount of human accomplishments.

 

On the statistics and dangers of Covid-19 you are operating on pure ignorance.

 

I work for a hospital in NY and a good friend of mine runs a police precinct here, so I have something of a front row tickets to this show.

 

Three of my hospital’s employees are dead from COVID-19, a couple more are currently critical and many required hospitalization before overcoming it.

 

A few weeks ago my friend was telling me that the death toll is grossly underestimated because he is seeing a big surge in respiratory and cardio failure deaths his precinct is responding to.

 

Sure enough statistics from about a week ago in NYC showed a six fold increase in deaths at home (~200 vs normal ~35 a day).

 

Anyone who tries to equate COVID-19 dangers with flu has no fn idea what they are talking about.

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