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pepperonikkid

Stop the 'anecdotal' nonsense

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mjperry51

Ignorant nonsense.

 

Temporary pause in economy IS NOT somehow equal to "1/4 of human accomplishment" that statement is a ridiculous discount of human accomplishments.

 

On the statistics and dangers of Covid-19 you are operating on pure ignorance.

 

I work for a hospital in NY and a good friend of mine runs a police precinct here, so I have something of a front row tickets to this show.

 

Three of my hospital's employees are dead from COVID-19, a couple more are currently critical and many required hospitalization before overcoming it.

 

A few weeks ago my friend was telling me that the death toll is grossly underestimated because he is seeing a big surge in respiratory and cardio failure deaths his precinct is responding to.

 

Sure enough statistics from about a week ago in NYC showed a six fold increase in deaths at home (~200 vs normal ~35 a day).

 

Anyone who tries to equate COVID-19 dangers with flu has no fn idea what they are talking about.

 

HOW ironic your post is actually on-topic.

 

All anecdotal - not that there's anything wrong with that. However I'm sure not what you intended. . .

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RationalThought

Okay.

 

Please don’t take this the wrong way but I’m tired of arguing whether it’s dangerous or just like the flu. I know I previously posted with a different mindset, so it’s not your fault that I don’t want to discuss that angle. We all see the data as it evolves, but none of us know yet what the final verdict will be. So I’ll wait to see how it all shakes out danger-wise and mortality rate wise.

I won't be arguing anything with anyone. I discuss, and if someone else wants to argue, they're on their own.

 

I saying that the "official" narrative, that this is a single coronavirus which somehow spread from Wuhan, does NOT hold up to the demonstrable evidence and logic (which are MY standards). Therefore, the question is what deviates from that "official" narrative, and why it might possibly justify this sort of cost in response.

 

My way of evaluating is to take the spectrum from zero response, like we do the typical annual coronavirus, to utter lockdown even worse than what we've been experience as the 100 level response. Each of those options of response carry a death toll, and an economic toll (with full recognition that people are going to die with every response, and there's going to be economic damage with every response, the question is how much of each).

 

My position is that the most reliable demonstrable data (countries like Iceland and South Korea) justify a response closer to ZERO than to LOCKDOWN. I go further and say that anyone who has been supporting the current level of response (or worse, calling for MORE lockdown) has full vested in the coming economic toll, and the ONLY thing they should be doing is being grateful it's not worse than the disaster to come.

 

Also, all along, I’ve actually been much more interested in the China angle. Why have flus been coming over from there for decades? Why SARS and bird flu and COVID19? What’s next?

 

Is China doing this deliberately, or accidentally? Are they trying to say in pretty clear terms to the US to F off? Are they trying to provoke us, and Europe?

 

I’m looking at this as a deliberate act. That’s why I assign danger to it. I may be wrong about the danger level, but better err on side of caution when dealing with an engineered weapon. You call it fear. That’s fine. Fear is a good motivator.

 

Besides, Trump and the governors are handling this quite well. Unexpectedly well, as a group. The timing to talk about opening up in phases, fairly soon, while meeting certain criteria is the right way to do it. It’ll be just a couple of weeks to a month for the majority of states.

Now you are proposing "conspiracy" theories outside the mainstream narrative. That's the only reasonable option, since the official narrative doesn't hold water, like I describe above.

 

The question is which, and/or which combination, of the various "conspiracy" theories happens to be the actual truth behind the curtain. I've got quite a bit of the rabbit warren mapped out, and I can't tell which of the various players are behind this with any degree of certainty.

 

Your pick of "conspiracy" theories is a Chinese bioweaponized coronavirus (a very popular pick at the moment). Chinese plagues go back MUCH further than just the "Chi-coms" with previous pandemics dating back at least to the Medieval plagues which had possible/likely origin in China.

 

Let's say this is another example of the long-standing traditions of Chinese plagues, this answers the "what" with your postulate, so now "why" is the question. The lowest hanging fruit is that China's economy has been struggling to hit lower and lower numbers each year and was finally going to miss by an ENORMOUS margin this year. Essentially, the Chinese government would have been playing economic arson, releasing the virus to cover the losses their economic system and choices have produced. No need for anything outside China.

 

From there things can go down a couple paths, where China intentionally allowed this to spread, or once released the virus spread differently than expected.

 

But that doesn't explain the discrepancy in the number reporting I've noted.

 

You theory also plugs in as a stage 2 of a US executed "conspiracy" theory where the virus was released at the Wuhan Military Olympics by "sick" US personnel. Or stage 2 of a China executed plot which released the virus at those same Military Olympics.

 

And the nexus which needs better explanation for me is the relationships between Event 201, ID2020, Agenda 2030, Gates, Fauci, WHO, vaccines, various Rockefeller interests, eugenicists, etc. That's one heapin' pile of EVIL that fits in somehow.

 

And this is just going down your chosen rabbit hole. There are close to a dozen different holes I cannot yet rule out of contention.

 

Besides, Trump and the governors are handling this quite well. Unexpectedly well, as a group. The timing to talk about opening up in phases, fairly soon, while meeting certain criteria is the right way to do it. It’ll be just a couple of weeks to a month for the majority of states.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I'll make my final judgment once all the dust clears. I never wanted any sort of shutdown in the first place, so from my POV, this has been handled horribly.

 

 

RationalThought

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RationalThought

Ignorant nonsense.

 

Temporary pause in economy IS NOT somehow equal to “1/4 of human accomplishment” that statement is a ridiculous discount of human accomplishments.

 

On the statistics and dangers of Covid-19 you are operating on pure ignorance.

 

I work for a hospital in NY and a good friend of mine runs a police precinct here, so I have something of a front row tickets to this show.

 

Three of my hospital’s employees are dead from COVID-19, a couple more are currently critical and many required hospitalization before overcoming it.

 

A few weeks ago my friend was telling me that the death toll is grossly underestimated because he is seeing a big surge in respiratory and cardio failure deaths his precinct is responding to.

 

Sure enough statistics from about a week ago in NYC showed a six fold increase in deaths at home (~200 vs normal ~35 a day).

 

Anyone who tries to equate COVID-19 dangers with flu has no fn idea what they are talking about.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

 

That and $5 gets you coffee at the Starbuck's drivethru.

 

 

RationalThought

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RationalThought

I agree.

 

If this virus were as dangerous as some are making it out to be, then there would be no need for the government to tell you to stay home. If people were dropping dead left and right, everyone would be terrified to to get it so they would lock themselves up and not leave the house. The majority of people have weighed their their options and have decided that this virus isn’t all that bad because they are leaving their houses to get groceries and to stroll around the neighborhood. Anyone here who has left their house in the last 3 days, for whatever reason, have decided to take their chances on getting infected. Trust me, if this virus were really bad, nothing would be open for business and everyone would be hunkered down without the government telling them to do so. In fact, the government would have to force certain businesses to open up.

:exactly:

 

We have an annual coronavirus flu epidemic. We've had SARS and swine flu. But NOTHING like this response. Which I take to mean I should expect the disease to look WORSE than all those past years. And except for countries with potential agendas, that's NOT the evidence I see.

 

Things don't add up, and those who try to force the "official" narrative down my throat are disgusting human beings. Believe what you want, but when you to try and force it on me is you cross a line I do not accept being crossed.

 

 

RationalThought

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Moderator T

 

A few weeks ago my friend was telling me that the death toll is grossly underestimated because he is seeing a big surge in respiratory and cardio failure deaths his precinct is responding to.

 

 

 

Wait. The police department that doesn't have enough crews to process all of their own calls for service have suddenly started responding to routine medical calls? That doesn't sound right, especially since FDNY's instructions are to leave cardiac arrests that they can't revive at the scene and make a telephone call to NYPD's investigative bureau to come pick up the body. Seems I think I'll contact some dispatchers I know there.

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MTP Reggie

I think it's hilarious that Anton, who regularly chastises RN's conservative members for being anecdotal, is himself incredibly anecdotal. But I guess hypocrisy is par for the course for a lefty.

 

 

med_gallery_6518_223_44574.png

 

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Dean Adam Smithee
Posted (edited)

It's calculated much like described in this

(NOT for the easily offended).

 

That's what actuaries do. I almost went that path out of college, but decided against what is essentially highly paid long division for the rest of my life (nothing wrong with it, it would have been mind-numbing and soul-sucking for me to do). I could have had that sort of responsibility, and passed for many of the reasons you cite here.

 

But I can and do criticize those who do make the decisions when I think they are making the wrong ones. Sort of like kvetching at the television at what an idiot the coach was to call that play.

 

 

RationalThought

 

ETA The metric which should be under consideration is not "deaths", but "years of life removed". Everyone dies; the question is how much SOONER a person died because of a given input like a virus or a preexisting condition.

 

The reason for lockdown isn't keep people from dying per se, but to keep them from filling up the Hospitals and ICUs. As some have point out ad nauseum, in terms of (just) deaths, this isn't even a bad flu season.

(And before anybody jumps all aver me (Again!) -
YES
, I'm well aware that there's plenty of beds open at
West Podunk General Hospital
. But I don't live there, I live where the hospitals ARE full.)

 

This also fits with the theory, that I'm leaning towards at the moment, that this was an Engineered virus. I dunno if it's Apocryphal, but I've heard or read somewhere that when the military developed the M-16 they chose the 5.56 rather than 7.62 caliber on the doctrine that's it better to wound than to kill, along with a corollary theory that you can render a fighting unit completely ineffective by wounding 30% of them and that this is also the tipping point, at least in non-elite units, where morale and discipline tends to break down.

 

The doctrine goes something like:
"Wound (1) enemy infantryman, and (3) stop fighting whilst 2 drag him away an care for him until he's evacuated. And once evacuated, he's no longer fighting but still consuming supplies and resources which are darned precious during war."

 

At the 'macro' level, I'm inclined to say "BS". Personally, if someone's a threat to me on the battlefield, I'm going to do my level best to KILL the motherforkers not just wound them.
BUT...
at the big picture "Doctrine" level? The sort of hare-brained things that generals and strategists and Think-Tanks full of PhDs ponder? Maybe there's something to it. What say YOU from an actuarial standpoint?

 

(I've alternatively heard this doctrine ascribed to why the military uses Full Metal Jacket (FMJ) ammunition. I've also alternatively heard that 5.56 was chosen over 7.62 for the M-16 because it's easier to control on "Full Auto", fewer rounds wasted, and/or that it was chosen because it was "just.good.enough" from a cost standpoint; both significant factors from a bean counter standpoint considering that gazillions that would be purchased and consumed in a war.Now, I don't want to turn this into an "M-16" thread, I just want to point out that such a doctrine apparently exists)

 

Lets apply that same "Doctrine" to biological warfare, just for the sake of discussion.

 


  •  
  • An ideal bioweapon is one that has no "smoking gun" for the purpose of retribution; there was no button pushed or trigger pulled that you can fire back at. Even if we can prove this was "engineered" rather than "natural", It would be damned hard to prove "intent" rather than "accident" as to the release.
     
  • An ideal bioweapon has "stealth"; it can be spread by persons who don't even know they're spreading it, and even if they DO eventually get sick there will have been sufficient time (14+ days) to get the job done.
     
  • Here in the USA There are ~600,000+ known cases with ~50,000 currently hospitalized for this across the USA, who in addition to not being productive are consuming resources. SUPPOSE it was ~600,000 DEAD rather than wounded, and then "over"? As Ghoulish as it may sound, that would have actually HELPED rather than hurt the US economy. At the very least, it would have done wonders to the unemployment rate and would have been "manna from heaven" to those in charge of the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid trust funds. INSTEAD, look at the economic devastation that's being wrought.

 

From purely a "strategic" standpoint COVID-19 as a Bioweapon is, for lack of a better word, "PERFECT".

Edited by Dean Adam Smithee

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RationalThought
Posted (edited)

The reason for lockdown isn't keep people from dying per se, but to keep them from filling up the Hospitals and ICUs. As some have point out ad nauseum, in terms of (just) deaths, this isn't even a bad flu season.

(And before anybody jumps all aver me (Again!) -
YES
, I'm well aware that there's plenty of beds open at
West Podunk General Hospital
. But I don't live there, I live where the hospitals ARE full.)

I understand all the various stated reasons. I'm saying those reasons don't add up to justifying the economic damage which has and is being done (and that damage will continue to be revealed as time goes on).

 

I'm calling :bs: on the premise that the lockdown is justified based on the totality of the supporting data. The data which I consider least compromised least supports the lockdown. The data supplied by those with agendas are outliers.

 

This is a question of bad data collection and bad statistics. As an engineer, I KNOW you know about statistics, QA procedures, and the like. For the life of me I can't imagine how if YOU were the boss you wouldn't look at all these countries separate data and be calling the US, China, Italy, Iran, and the few other outliers onto the carpet and finding out what the HELL they are doing different to screw things up this badly, from a data collection and reporting standpoint. These bad data sets and the analysis based on the bad data sets simply do not pass the smell test from a QA statistics standpoint.

 

If I wrong, please explain how?

 

This also fits with the theory, that I'm leaning towards at the moment, that this was an Engineered virus. I dunno if it's Apocryphal, but I've heard or read somewhere that when the military developed the M-16 they chose the 5.56 rather than 7.62 caliber on the doctrine that's it better to wound than to kill, along with a corollary theory that you can render a fighting unit completely ineffective by wounding 30% of them and that this is also the tipping point, at least in non-elite units, where morale and discipline tends to break down.

Now you're going all "conspiracy theorist" on me like zurg. My point has been focused on the "official" narrative not justifying the lockdown and the economic damage which will result from those reactions.

 

Yes, this being a bioengineered virus is a popular "conspiracy theory". I'm mapped most of those rabbit warrens trying to figure out what's happening behind the curtain, and I still don't have a clear picture.

 

Let's take your rabbit hole as the right one (there are others like 5G, Bill Gates going full-Bond villain, AI takeover, asteroid/comet impact, Q tunnel war, the list is endless as to "conspiracy theories" more believable than the "official" narrative). OK, this is a bioweapon, but WHOSE bioweapon? Every nation who thinks they are a global player has one or more biolabs, and each of those labs probably has one or more coronaviruses they have modified. If this got released, who released it? The US? China? North Korea? Russia? Israel?

 

And once the perpetrator is chosen, what was their reason? And can we be sure that the first level analysis holds true, and that if the surface is scratched the initial lead suspect is shown to have been framed? And what if that "frame" was actually covering for doing it in the first place. This is complicated iterated game theory on a geopolitical level.

 

But I'm not at the point that the main problem is the released biowarfare virus (again, assuming your rabbit hole is the right one).

 

The doctrine goes something like:
"Wound (1) enemy infantryman, and (3) stop fighting whilst 2 drag him away an care for him until he's evacuated. And once evacuated, he's no longer fighting but still consuming supplies and resources which are darned precious during war."

 

At the 'macro' level, I'm inclined to say "BS". Personally, if someone's a threat to me on the battlefield, I'm going to do my level best to KILL the motherforkers not just wound them.
BUT...
at the big picture "Doctrine" level? The sort of hare-brained things that generals and strategists and Think-Tanks full of PhDs ponder? Maybe there's something to it. What say YOU from an actuarial standpoint?

 

(I've alternatively heard this doctrine ascribed to why the military uses Full Metal Jacket (FMJ) ammunition. I've also alternatively heard that 5.56 was chosen over 7.62 for the M-16 because it's easier to control on "Full Auto", fewer rounds wasted, and/or that it was chosen because it was "just.good.enough" from a cost standpoint; both significant factors from a bean counter standpoint considering that gazillions that would be purchased and consumed in a war.Now, I don't want to turn this into an "M-16" thread, I just want to point out that such a doctrine apparently exists)

I can ABSOLUTELY say that this mentality not only exists, but predominates at the highest levels. The field of Economics is all about thinking in this manner.

 

Here's possibly the easiest, quickest, and deepest connection for you to see.

 

Economic systems like countries, business, industries, etc., can be modeled through Input/Output analysis into a matrix (as you add inputs and outputs it becomes a really HUGE matrix). This was used in large scale economic analysis and planning since it was developed in the 1920s. During WWII, analysis of the Nazi economy by the allies was done to identify those areas of crucial infrastructure where Germany would be most hurt by their crippling. While oil and the lack of Nazi access to oil reserves is a commonly chokepoint, the most critical item was BALL BEARINGS. The reason was because of the specialty equipment and infrastructure required to manufacture them and their critical necessity for use in machines. This explained all those Hogan's Heroes jokes about bombing the ball bearing factories in Düsseldorf.

 

Lets apply that same "Doctrine" to biological warfare, just for the sake of discussion.

 


  •  
  • An ideal bioweapon is one that has no "smoking gun" for the purpose of retribution; there was no button pushed or trigger pulled that you can fire back at. Even if we can prove this was "engineered" rather than "natural", It would be damned hard to prove "intent" rather than "accident" as to the release.
     
  • An ideal bioweapon has "stealth"; it can be spread by persons who don't even know they're spreading it, and even if they DO eventually get sick there will have been sufficient time (14+ days) to get the job done.
     
  • Here in the USA There are ~600,000+ known cases with ~50,000 currently hospitalized for this across the USA, who in addition to not being productive are consuming resources. SUPPOSE it was ~600,000 DEAD rather than wounded, and then "over"? As Ghoulish as it may sound, that would have actually HELPED rather than hurt the US economy. At the very least, it would have done wonders to the unemployment rate and would have been "manna from heaven" to those in charge of the Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid trust funds. INSTEAD, look at the economic devastation that's being wrought.

 

From purely a "strategic" standpoint COVID-19 as a Bioweapon is, for lack of a better word, "PERFECT".

What you are describing is essentially a Bio-Cold War which destroys the world economy in a scorched earth strategy until all assets in the incredibly smaller poorer world are hardened adequately (and those not hardened destroyed). And just like with the OG Cold War, no one can be comfortable there's not a worse virus lurking out there, so saber-rattling becomes PARTICULARLY effective. In this case, this bioengineered "novel" coronavirus could be no more deadly than what Iceland and South Korea would lead one to believe, but the fear of a WORSE bioweapon waiting in the wings destroys the world economy even though such a virus hasn't been released and may not even exist.

 

 

RationalThought

 

Edit grammar and clarity

Edited by RationalThought

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AntonToo

Wait. The police department that doesn't have enough crews to process all of their own calls for service have suddenly started responding to routine medical calls? That doesn't sound right, especially since FDNY's instructions are to leave cardiac arrests that they can't revive at the scene and make a telephone call to NYPD's investigative bureau to come pick up the body. Seems I think I'll contact some dispatchers I know there.

 

???...Death is not a routine medical call.

 

He is nearing retirement and has never seen so many people dying at home out of nowhere. And not just elderly, but seemingly healthy people as well.

 

This could be a mix of covid-19 and people being afraid of going to the hospital when they feel ill.

 

This is no “just anecdote” this is a collaboration of the statistics that clearly show deaths at home being up by 6 fold over normal.

 

 

https://www.propublica.org/article/theres-been-a-spike-in-people-dying-at-home-in-several-cities-that-suggests-coronavirus-deaths-are-higher-than-reported

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Dean Adam Smithee
Posted (edited)

What you are describing is essentially a Bio-Cold War which destroys the world economy in a scorched earth strategy until all assets in the incredibly smaller poorer world are hardened adequately (and those not hardened destroyed). And just like with the OG Cold War, no one can be comfortable there's not a worse virus lurking out there, so saber-rattling becomes PARTICULARLY effective. In this case, this bioengineered "novel" coronavirus could be no more deadly than what Iceland and South Korea would lead one to believe, but the fear of a WORSE bioweapon waiting in the wings destroys the world economy even though such a virus hasn't been released and may not even exist.

 

 

RationalThought

 

YES, I do believe that bioweapons will be at least one front of the next cold war. Or 'flu war', so to speak. Or MAYBE we're there already. But I believe it will be 'targeted' rather than 'scorched earth'.

 


  •  
  • The FBI produced a report last fall - mere months before the discovery of this COVID-19 in late December - labeling China as a "Biosecurity" risk based an 'alarming number' of Chinese nationals smuggling things like SARS and MERS both into and out of the USA. That report only became public very recently - How many other reports have DJT and others seen that are still classified? Washington Examiner (01 April):
    FBI warned about 'biosecurity risk' after Chinese nationals snuck suspicious vials into US.
     
  • At the forefront of medical research is using Genomics to create highly-targeted cures. Medical Journal of Australia: The impact of genomics on the future of medicine and health If cures can be engineered using genomics, then it follows that bioweapons can be too. Will the next Saddam Hussein try to wipe out the kurds using a genome-based bioweapon rather than poison gas?
     
  • There are reports indicating that COVID-19 'significantly' affects people with type 'A' blood over people with type 'O' blood. As it happens, 'O' is China's largest blood group by percent. A significant percent. Is this "coincidence" or is it "evidence" that maybe China was trying to figure out how to protect their own before this was 'accidentally' released?
     

Of course this is "speculation" on my part. But I think there's enough out there that is more than just idle speculation. And how many things have been discovered over the years when someone just happened to notice an anomaly or perhaps one too many coincidences? I believe the question should be at least raised.

Edited by Dean Adam Smithee

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zurg

YES, I do believe that bioweapons will be at least one front of the next cold war. Or 'flu war', so to speak. Or MAYBE we're there already. But I believe it will be 'targeted' rather than 'scorched earth'.

 

  • The FBI produced a report last fall - mere months before the discovery of this COVID-19 in late December - labeling China as a "Biosecurity" risk based an 'alarming number' of Chinese nationals smuggling things like SARS and MERS both into and out of the USA. That report only became public very recently - How many other reports have DJT and others seen that are still classified? Washington Examiner (01 April):
    FBI warned about 'biosecurity risk' after Chinese nationals snuck suspicious vials into US.
  • At the forefront of medical research is using Genomics to create highly-targeted cures. Medical Journal of Australia: The impact of genomics on the future of medicine and health If cures can be engineered using genomics, then it follows that bioweapons can be too. Will the next Saddam Hussein try to wipe out the kurds using a genome-based bioweapon rather than poison gas?
  • There are reports indicating that COVID-19 'significantly' affects people with type 'A' blood over people with type 'O' blood. As it happens, 'O' is China's largest blood group by percent. A significant percent. Is this "coincidence" or is it "evidence" that maybe China was trying to figure out how to protect their own before this was 'accidentally' released?

Of course this is "speculation" on my part. But I think there's enough out there that is more than just idle speculation. And how many things have been discovered over the years when someone just happened to notice an anomaly or perhaps one too many coincidences? I believe the question should be at least raised.

 

There are a lot of questions that can be asked very reasonably here about development or testing or distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in Chinese military/government lab in Wuhan. Like you say, there are enough reasonable questions without answers. The Chinese CLAIM that it came from the wet market in Wuhan. So since it looks like RT thinks that questioning THAT claim, even though we know without a doubt that other claims by the Chinese are false and lies, amounts to conspiracy on the same level as Bill Gates and QAnon, I'm no longer responding to RT.

 

I'll add one more curiosity about Wuhan. Why did several in the Iranian leadership (pretty high up the chain) get sick with COVID19 right at in the early going, including their Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee sick in mid-February? What was HE doing? Did he visit Wuhan...?Now THAT is a conspiracy claim, unsupported by anything real that I know of. But the other stuff being reported on is not.

 

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RationalThought
So since it looks like RT thinks that questioning THAT claim, even though we know without a doubt that other claims by the Chinese are false and lies, amounts to conspiracy on the same level as Bill Gates and QAnon, I'm no longer responding to RT.

This hits the core of why I stopped posting here regularly in 2016, and will likely result in limiting my posting again in 2020.

 

There is the "official" narrative, which is written by "the winners", TPTB, the Consensus. Everything else is a "conspiracy" theory of varying degrees. I've got no issue with "conspiracy" theories, in fact, most of what I think to be true qualifies as "conspiracy" theories.

 

What I have an issue with is a person who chooses one of the many various "conspiracy" theory alternatives throwing shade at OTHER "conspiracy" theories and theorists consistent with demonstrable facts and logic. Everyone gets to choose the theory they like, be it the "official" one or any of the "conspiracy" alternatives, but unless the disagreement is over points of demonstrable fact and/or logic, no one should be getting bent out of shape over a person picking one theory over the others.

 

But you seem to be saying that because I don't 100% accept YOUR chosen "conspiracy" theory and allow for the possibility that OTHER theories might be right, I am no longer worthy of interacting with you (remember, I have clearly stated from the beginning that I DO NOT have a preferred theory other than the "official" theory being utterly bogus). You sound no different than the Leftists I heard demanding that I MUST believe Blasey Ford over Kavanaugh, and no more convincing.

 

I've mapped the "conspiracy" theory space concerning this virus and the response fairly thoroughly, so I am happy about talking about any given theory, your theory that this is a human engineered virus. You make many assumptions off that initial postulate about the virus being human designed, like the virus is of Chinese origin, the initial vector into the public, etc., that I don't find undeniable given the facts in evidence and logic.

 

For example, divergence points for the various human engineered theories need to decide:

 

Which country was the initial developer of the virus (leading candidates in no particular order: Iran, USA, North Korea, China, Israel, Russia)

 

Was the release intentional or accidental

 

If intentional, which country released the virus (the above list and a WHOLE lot more)

 

Where was the virus released

 

How was the virus released

 

Why was the virus released

 

If you've got any solid demonstrable data to start eliminating possibilities in the global game of virus Clue, please share. Because I've got a whole lot of nuthin'. All of them are suspects for me.

 

 

RationalThought

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RationalThought
Posted (edited)

First.

 

I REALLY would like you to address my point about the problem with the data sets concerning the virus from a QA statistical standpoint (the cleanest and most complete data sets like Iceland and South Korea are consistent with each other, while the data sets from China, Italy, and a few other very isolated locations reports the overwhelming majority of the problems, and then we would need to go into reporting standards like "probable COVID deaths", lol). To me, this is the base of any discussion on the subject, and an area with which I KNOW you are intimately familiar. I firmly believe that you need to shift goggles for a bit of a different POV on the issue to see some things you've been missing.

 

YES, I do believe that bioweapons will be at least one front of the next cold war. Or 'flu war', so to speak. Or MAYBE we're there already. But I believe it will be 'targeted' rather than 'scorched earth'.

Let me explain better.

 

It's each countries own assets which will be hardened or Scorched Earthed. Scorched Earth is a defensive technique.

 

What I see happening is facilities and resources will be isolated from the public and taken "underground" so to speak. There will be a truly "underground economy" with everything needed for ongoing self-sustained survival (think DUMBs for those familiar with that part of the rabbit warren). Those "surface" people at that point will be essentially disposable pawns, use them for what they are good for and if a bunch get taken out, oh well, sucks to be them.

 


  •  
  • The FBI produced a report last fall - mere months before the discovery of this COVID-19 in late December - labeling China as a "Biosecurity" risk based an 'alarming number' of Chinese nationals smuggling things like SARS and MERS both into and out of the USA. That report only became public very recently - How many other reports have DJT and others seen that are still classified? Washington Examiner (01 April):
    FBI warned about 'biosecurity risk' after Chinese nationals snuck suspicious vials into US.
     
  • At the forefront of medical research is using Genomics to create highly-targeted cures. Medical Journal of Australia: The impact of genomics on the future of medicine and health If cures can be engineered using genomics, then it follows that bioweapons can be too. Will the next Saddam Hussein try to wipe out the kurds using a genome-based bioweapon rather than poison gas?
     
  • There are reports indicating that COVID-19 'significantly' affects people with type 'A' blood over people with type 'O' blood. As it happens, 'O' is China's largest blood group by percent. A significant percent. Is this "coincidence" or is it "evidence" that maybe China was trying to figure out how to protect their own before this was 'accidentally' released?
     

All of these are fascinating data points which need to be incorporated into any sort of complete narrative concerning these "interesting" times in which we live.

 

You tread close to dangerous waters when you start discussing genes, races, bloodlines, and the like. Those are emotionally charged subjects for many people, and horrible accusations will get lobbed because of difference in POVs. It can get ugly from there, lol.

 

As a tangent, if you've never looked at blood type distribution across the globe, it's fascinating.

 

Of course this is "speculation" on my part. But I think there's enough out there that is more than just idle speculation. And how many things have been discovered over the years when someone just happened to notice an anomaly or perhaps one too many coincidences? I believe the question should be at least raised.

I fully support questions being raised on ALL the various concerns. There are other questions I would rate just as high a priority for investigation as the ones you raise here.

 

I'm not ruling ANYTHING out at this point unless I've got concrete reason for doing so.

 

 

RationalThought

Edited by RationalThought

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Howsithangin

I think it's hilarious that Anton, who regularly chastises RN's conservative members for being anecdotal, is himself incredibly anecdotal. But I guess hypocrisy is par for the course for a lefty.

 

The Soviet is only consistent in being inconsistent, and like all lefties, splitting hairs and arguments at the subatomic level so as to justify what is to everyone else, hypocrisy

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zurg
Posted (edited)

This hits the core of why I stopped posting here regularly in 2016, and will likely result in limiting my posting again in 2020.

Okay. That statement does nothing to either convince me to reply or to keep from replying. It's interesting, but on the binary scale of 1/0/X ranks as X (don't care).

 

But you seem to be saying that because I don't 100% accept YOUR chosen "conspiracy" theory and allow for the possibility that OTHER theories might be right, I am no longer worthy of interacting with you (remember, I have clearly stated from the beginning that I DO NOT have a preferred theory other than the "official" theory being utterly bogus). You sound no different than the Leftists I heard demanding that I MUST believe Blasey Ford over Kavanaugh, and no more convincing.

That interpretation doesn't exactly increase my desire to interact with you. I don't expect anyone to accept my chosen theory. I'm simply saying that it's the one I want to discuss, and not the other ones. My choice, you can ignore it. I'm not trying to demand that you do anything.

 

Which country was the initial developer of the virus (leading candidates in no particular order: Iran, USA, North Korea, China, Israel, Russia)

 

Was the release intentional or accidental

 

If intentional, which country released the virus (the above list and a WHOLE lot more)

 

Where was the virus released

 

How was the virus released

 

Why was the virus released

These are my opinions. You may not be interested in them.

  • Initial developer: China or its employees in US (not necessarily of Chinese origin), and likely not initially developed in Wuhan
  • Release: If traced, it would look like it had been an accident (sloppiness), but in reality was intentional
  • Intentional: Decision made by highest levels in China
  • Where released: Wuhan
  • How released: I don't have a guess
  • Why released: China's path to Asian/world dominance halted

Edited by zurg

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RationalThought

Okay. That statement does nothing to either convince me to reply or to keep from replying. It's interesting, but on the binary scale of 1/0/X ranks as X (don't care).

 

That interpretation doesn't exactly increase my desire to interact with you. I don't expect anyone to accept my chosen theory. I'm simply saying that it's the one I want to discuss, and not the other ones. My choice, you can ignore it. I'm not trying to demand that you do anything.

What you do is your business. I prefer my interactions a certain way, and if that's not happening one place, I go elsewhere. I expect that everyone does the same (or should).

 

These are my opinions. You may not be interested in them.

  • Initial developer: China or its employees in US (not necessarily of Chinese origin), and likely not initially developed in Wuhan
  • Release: If traced, it would look like it had been an accident (sloppiness), but in reality was intentional
  • Intentional: Decision made by highest levels in China
  • Where released: Wuhan
  • How released: I don't have a guess
  • Why released: China's path to Asian/world dominance halted

A problem I have at this point is that while I can discuss them, I can have an equally factual discussion about a dozen or more alternative "conspiracy" theories besides your VERY specific version of the general "human designed virus" option. Those discussions can be lots of fun, as can discussions about the merits of the Vanyar, Noldor and Teleri. But my discussion subject is primarily the total insufficiency of the "official" narrative (a subject on which we agree), and then to try and narrow down which of the various possibilities might be the right one. You've decided which is the right one (as far as you are concerned) and are only interested in discussing THAT. That rather puts us at an impasse.

 

And running through your choices, I can't make a narrative consistent with the facts. For example, you have this being a "conspiracy" of the highest Chinese officials who then executed the plot because "China's path to Asian/world dominance halted". That doesn't make any sense to me. China's path to Asian/world dominance has been on a solid path for decades, and I don't see any "halting", but rather simply the Great Game being played out.

 

A HUGE issue I have with your option is from the existing demonstrable facts, I cannot distinguish between your chosen option, and the option that the US or another country is behind everything. Heck, with the US pulling out of WHO and their vaccine-crazed eugenics agenda, Bill Gates is their leading supporter, just over the Chinese government. How are you ruling out Bill Gates and all the billions (trillions) of dollars invested over decades by him and various generations of eugenicists rather than the Chinese government?

 

 

RationalThought

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zurg
Posted (edited)

What you do is your business. I prefer my interactions a certain way, and if that's not happening one place, I go elsewhere. I expect that everyone does the same (or should).

 

 

A problem I have at this point is that while I can discuss them, I can have an equally factual discussion about a dozen or more alternative "conspiracy" theories besides your VERY specific version of the general "human designed virus" option. Those discussions can be lots of fun, as can discussions about the merits of the Vanyar, Noldor and Teleri. But my discussion subject is primarily the total insufficiency of the "official" narrative (a subject on which we agree), and then to try and narrow down which of the various possibilities might be the right one. You've decided which is the right one (as far as you are concerned) and are only interested in discussing THAT. That rather puts us at an impasse.

 

And running through your choices, I can't make a narrative consistent with the facts. For example, you have this being a "conspiracy" of the highest Chinese officials who then executed the plot because "China's path to Asian/world dominance halted". That doesn't make any sense to me. China's path to Asian/world dominance has been on a solid path for decades, and I don't see any "halting", but rather simply the Great Game being played out.

 

A HUGE issue I have with your option is from the existing demonstrable facts, I cannot distinguish between your chosen option, and the option that the US or another country is behind everything. Heck, with the US pulling out of WHO and their vaccine-crazed eugenics agenda, Bill Gates is their leading supporter, just over the Chinese government. How are you ruling out Bill Gates and all the billions (trillions) of dollars invested over decades by him and various generations of eugenicists rather than the Chinese government?

 

 

RationalThought

I haven't decided that the discussion about Chinese involvement in SARS-CoV-2 by way of masterminding (or sponsoring) its design and development is necessarily the "right one". Maybe I didn't express it clearly, or maybe you misunderstood. 1) It's the primary one I'm interested in flushing out first, and 2) while flushing it out, I don't want to also discuss the others in parallel because I'm not all that great at multitasking.

 

I don't mind going in another direction if there's a connection or explanation to this one, or it overtakes this one. I just think this is the leading candidate and that's all, for now.

 

So about the specifics on this. China has been rising for years and years, as you say. But the big catch is that they've done it unfairly, with currency manipulation, intellectual property theft (lots and lots of it), lacking environmental standards, etc. Of course, some big corporations didn't care/mind (but NOT all, it would be a mistake to claim that all corporations have no such morals). So China grew and grew by leaps and bounds. Trump's election was a very bad thing for China, from the viewpoint of the leadership. So it is possible that this is the Chinese serpent spewing its venom in response, instead of realizing that they don't actually have the financial stranglehold over the west like they do over parts of the third world. If you have logical reasoning why this isn't a reasonable assumption, I'd like to hear it.

 

Regarding whether China or someone else is behind this. Because of the above, I think it's China (maybe with help from certain assets in the US, like that Harvard professor, or something like that). However, it's could be the US, I suppose, somehow making the release happen in China, thinking it would never get back to the West. Can you point to anything that's been said or done that could point the finger at the US government and intelligence apparatus? I find that unlikely because we are just way too open in information flow, even if not right away , but later. Statute of limitations won't run out on stuff like this. China on the other hand is the definition of secrecy. Often the simplest answer is the right one, as Occam's Razor says.

 

But why would they release it in their own country? Did the plan go wrong? Or is that the big cover (e.g. do they have an antidote)? Or are the stories of 10x more deaths in Wuhan correct (than reported)? I admit that any clues on that can totally cause my theory to fall apart.

 

ETA: Government sources are beginning to publicly state that the culprit is China. They say it's probably accidental release after a development they engaged in because China has been trying to show the world they're as good as US.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/peter-navarro

https://www.foxnews....ble-coronavirus

 

Edited by zurg

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Dean Adam Smithee
Posted (edited)

You tread close to dangerous waters when you start discussing genes, races, bloodlines, and the like. Those are emotionally charged subjects for many people, and horrible accusations will get lobbed because of difference in POVs. It can get ugly from there, lol.

 

Dangers waters, indeed. There was a STORM of controversy in '98 or so when the Times of London - a paper I would generally consider 'solid' rather than 'tabloid' - ran a story about the Israelis developing a bioweapon to take out only Arabs. I can't find the original story but this article in Wired magazine cites it:

 

Israel's Ethnic Weapon?

11.16.98 12:00 pm

 

Israel is reportedly developing a biological weapon that would harm Arabs while leaving Jews unaffected, according to a report in London's Sunday Times. The report, citing Israeli military and western intelligence sources, says that scientists are trying to identify distinctive genes carried by Arabs to create a genetically modified bacterium
or virus
...

 

...The "ethno-bomb" program is based at Israel's Nes Tziyona research facility. Scientists are trying to use viruses and bacteria to alter DNA inside living cells and attack only those cells bearing Arabic genes. The task is very complex because both Arabs and Jews are Semitic peoples. But according to the report, the Israelis have succeeded in isolating particular characteristics of certain Arabs, "particularly the Iraqi people."...

 

Was it true? I dunno. Maybe the story was just a "plant" by the Israelis to scare off Hussein from attacking them in the run-up to Gulf War II. But it goes to show: People were at least THINKING about such things even back then. And this was 22 years ago, and look at haw far biotech and genomics have come since then.

Edited by Dean Adam Smithee

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JerryL

How do YOU know how dangerous this "novel" coronavirus is? Because the data does NOT lead to any sort of firm conclusion that this IS as dangerous as the reaction would seem to warrant.

 

For example, the data coming out of those countries WITHOUT any sort of agenda and the most reliable data (Iceland and South Korea), the data supports a disease with roughly the same virulence as a typical seasonal flu. This "best fit" I currently have, and the variance in areas like China, Italy, New York, etc., is a result of bad data collection, bad analysis, and ulterior motives.

 

Everyone who gets this "novel" coronavirus will die. Everyone who does NOT get this "novel" coronavirus will die. The question is how, when, and what they do BEFORE they die.

 

People can live in fear of whatever they chose, this "novel" coronavirus included. That fear will have possibly destroyed half of the jobs out there and 1/4 of the net value of human accomplishment in the last 12,000 years. That's a HUGE price to pay for fear I don't see the data supporting.

 

 

RationalThought

:yeahthat:

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RationalThought
Posted (edited)

Dangers waters, indeed. There was a STORM of controversy in '98 or so when the Times of London - a paper I would generally consider 'solid' rather than 'tabloid' - ran a story about the Israelis developing a bioweapon to take out only Arabs. I can't find the original story but this article in Wired magazine cites it:

 

Israel's Ethnic Weapon?

11.16.98 12:00 pm

 

Israel is reportedly developing a biological weapon that would harm Arabs while leaving Jews unaffected, according to a report in London's Sunday Times. The report, citing Israeli military and western intelligence sources, says that scientists are trying to identify distinctive genes carried by Arabs to create a genetically modified bacterium
or virus
...

 

...The "ethno-bomb" program is based at Israel's Nes Tziyona research facility. Scientists are trying to use viruses and bacteria to alter DNA inside living cells and attack only those cells bearing Arabic genes. The task is very complex because both Arabs and Jews are Semitic peoples. But according to the report, the Israelis have succeeded in isolating particular characteristics of certain Arabs, "particularly the Iraqi people."...

 

Was it true? I dunno. Maybe the story was just a "plant" by the Israelis to scare off Hussein from attacking them in the run-up to Gulf War II. But it goes to show: People were at least THINKING about such things even back then. And this was 22 years ago, and look at haw far biotech and genomics have come since then.

Yep, people were thinking about it 22 years ago. And 90 years ago. And before, after, and pretty much constantly for some people.

 

One interesting tangent is that recent genetic research has pointed toward the real possibility that Ashkenazi Jews are descended from the Khazars and are NOT Semitic.

 

And about those various data sets and their reliability...

 

:whistling:

 

 

RationalThought

Edited by RationalThought

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AntonToo
Posted (edited)

Coming back down to here and now:

 

New study finds hydroxychloroquine not-effective or worse:

 

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

 

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too

 

Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.

 

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

 

 

Meanwhile Trump seems to have removed Dr. Rick Bright, a top vaccine expert from development effort for his pushback on widespread use of unproved drug:

 

 

In a stunningly candid statement, Bright highlighted his refusal to embrace hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug relentlessly promoted by the president and Fox News despite a lack of scientific studies.

 

“Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the administration as a panacea, but which clearly lack scientific merit,” Bright said.

 

“While I am prepared to look at all options and to think ‘outside the box’ for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/rick-bright-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus

Edited by AntonToo

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MontyPython

Coming back down to here and now:

 

New study finds hydroxychloroquine not-effective or worse:

 

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

 

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too

 

Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.

 

https://apnews.com/a5077c7227b8eb8b0dc23423c0bbe2b2

 

 

Meanwhile Trump seems to have removed Dr. Rick Bright, a top vaccine expert from development effort for his pushback on widespread use of unproved drug:

 

 

In a stunningly candid statement, Bright highlighted his refusal to embrace hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug relentlessly promoted by the president and Fox News despite a lack of scientific studies.

 

“Specifically, and contrary to misguided directives, I limited the broad use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, promoted by the administration as a panacea, but which clearly lack scientific merit,” Bright said.

 

“While I am prepared to look at all options and to think ‘outside the box’ for effective treatments, I rightly resisted efforts to provide an unproven drug on demand to the American public.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/rick-bright-trump-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus

 

Lemme guess...LOL...You didn't bother to read THIS thread, did you? I would direct your attention specifically to post #7.

 

B)

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AntonToo

Lemme guess...LOL...You didn't bother to read THIS thread, did you? I would direct your attention specifically to post #7.

 

B)

 

I've read through it. Just the usual half baked denials.

 

This drug is not the answer, that much is certain at this point.

 

 

Besides, our stable genius Trump has already moved on to exploring new cures...like Lysol injections.

 

 

 

It would be funny if it wasn't so damn sad.

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zurg
Posted (edited)

I've read through it. Just the usual half baked denials.

 

This drug is not the answer, that much is certain at this point.

 

 

Besides, our stable genius Trump has already moved on to exploring new cures...like Lysol injections.

 

 

 

It would be funny if it wasn't so damn sad.

Actually, they talked about two things

 

1) Light therapy - this is already prevalent, including UV. I hope I don’t need to provide a link. Oh, Trump spent more time talking about light than about the next one, but you failed to notice or give credit there. I wonder why?

 

2) Disinfectant therapy - oh yeah, you mind, because it’s so feeble, jumps immediately to Lysol and the like. They were actually talking about H2O2 (that’s hydrogen peroxide, you are probably unaware). And, it sounds a bit crazy, but this controversial treatment has been and is being done with careful administration. General medical circles won’t know about it, and I admit that it’s not at all mainstream, but to think Trump had no idea - he bests you again. Here’s one such link: http://vvnaturopathic.com/blog/2019/4/17/hydrogen-peroxide-iv-therapy.

 

3) AntonToo is wrong, again.

 

ETA: Despite what YOU say, hydroxychloroquine is showing promise as an early treatment. Not when your pulse ox is low already, but before it gets there. I guess you’ll deny the treatment if it’s your turn to get sick.

 

ETA2: All the fake media can comment about is “Lysol” and “bleach” IV. They’re so ignorant! Trump plays them perfectly. Leftists don’t want to admit it but Trump is actually very smart. He just takes on an annoying personality so it’s easy for his antagonists to believe that “he must be stupid”....because that’s what they WANT to be true. And Trump is always a step or two ahead.

Edited by zurg

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AntonToo
Posted (edited)

Actually, they talked about two things

 

1) Light therapy - this is already prevalent, including UV. I hope I don’t need to provide a link. Oh, Trump spent more time talking about light than about the next one, but you failed to notice or give credit there. I wonder why?

 

2) Disinfectant therapy - oh yeah, you mind, because it’s so feeble, jumps immediately to Lysol and the like. They were actually talking about H2O2 (that’s hydrogen peroxide, you are probably unaware). And, it sounds a bit crazy, but this controversial treatment has been and is being done with careful administration. General medical circles won’t know about it, and I admit that it’s not at all mainstream, but to think Trump had no idea - he bests you again. Here’s one such link: http://vvnaturopathic.com/blog/2019/4/17/hydrogen-peroxide-iv-therapy.

 

3) AntonToo is wrong, again.

 

ETA: Despite what YOU say, hydroxychloroquine is showing promise as an early treatment. Not when your pulse ox is low already, but before it gets there. I guess you’ll deny the treatment if it’s your turn to get sick.

 

ETA2: All the fake media can comment about is “Lysol” and “bleach” IV. They’re so ignorant! Trump plays them perfectly. Leftists don’t want to admit it but Trump is actually very smart. He just takes on an annoying personality so it’s easy for his antagonists to believe that “he must be stupid”....because that’s what they WANT to be true. And Trump is always a step or two ahead.

 

 

280.jpg

 

 

Let me make something real clear to you before you break your back carrying water for our stable genius.

 

The environmental conditions and surface disinfectants that were discussed prior to Trump opening his dumbass ignorant mouth have NOTHING to do with COVID-19 infection treatment.

 

Mkk?

Edited by AntonToo

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