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MTP Reggie

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

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MTP Reggie

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’
The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.
ALEXIS C. MADRIGAL, ROBINSON MEYER
MAY 21, 2020
The Atlantic

<More Surprise Here>

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.

This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.

Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.  

The widespread use of the practice means that it remains difficult to know exactly how much the country’s ability to test people who are actively sick with COVID-19 has improved.

“You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told us when we described what the CDC was doing. “How could the CDC make that mistake? This is a mess.”

Viral tests, taken by nose swab or saliva sample, look for direct evidence of a coronavirus infection. They are considered the gold standard for diagnosing someone with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus: State governments consider a positive viral test to be the only way to confirm a case of COVID-19. Antibody tests, by contrast, use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.

A negative test result means something different for each test. If somebody tests negative on a viral test, a doctor can be relatively confident that they are not sick right now; if somebody tests negative on an antibody test, they have probably never been infected with or exposed to the coronavirus. (Or they may have been given a false result—antibody tests are notoriously less accurate on an individual level than viral tests.) The problem is that the CDC is clumping negative results from both tests together in its public reporting.

Mixing the two tests makes it much harder to understand the meaning of positive tests, and it clouds important information about the U.S. response to the pandemic, Jha said. “The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals,” he told us. By combining the two types of results, the CDC has made them both “uninterpretable,” he said.

(snip)

<More Surprise Here>

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KenpoDude

Say it ain't so.  Gosh, a government agency falsifying data?  I can't believe it.

 

These people make it really difficult to NOT believe there's an agenda here.

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Severian

Hard to tell if it's deliberate or incompetence, or a toxic brew of both.

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oki

And yet again data comes out(that isn't a huge MSM headline) backing up a Trump firing for incompetence.   You'd think by now these cretins at all the Gov agencies would have gotten the message that no one is safe from being fired if you don't do your job, but, the swamp runs deep, VERY DEEP in D.C.

 

 

 

 

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Taggart Transcontinental

This is intentional to cloud our response as citizens. One other thing that lags, is reporting on total recovered. There are literally hundreds of thousands that recovered from this crap and yet you hear nothing about it.

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MontyPython

Yes, there's an agenda. Yes, it's no doubt a mix of both incompetence and deliberate falsifying.

And here's my surprised face:

<_<

 

 

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Taggart Transcontinental
1 hour ago, MontyPython said:

Yes, there's an agenda. Yes, it's no doubt a mix of both incompetence and deliberate falsifying.

And here's my surprised face:

<_<

 

 

I read 2 separate articles today I can only find them in emails. They aren't readily available.

1st article stated the infection period of this disease is 2 days prior to onset of symptoms up to 11 days after initial onset. After that point your body is no longer producing RNA that can be passed. So we know now that to stop this if you are among someone with it then isolation for 14 days is appropriate and then up to 11 days after onset you are safe to not worry about giving it to others.

2nd article was a survey of 2500 docs world wide. 37% said HCQ was their number 1 treatment during any phase of the infection. 32% said there was no treatment and the other information was spread out. IN the US due to the negative reporting only 23% of docs go to HCQ. That's due to the misinformation going on about it. Singapore has 23 deaths due to Wuhan, and they go to HCQ IMMEDIATELY upon onset. Isn't that amazing? Time to burn the media to the ground in our nation, they are a pack of thieves and liars. Nothing more.

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RedSoloCup

C-Can't

D- Decide

C- Crap

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RedSoloCup
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Taggart Transcontinental said:

This is intentional to cloud our response as citizens. One other thing that lags, is reporting on total recovered. There are literally hundreds of thousands that recovered from this crap and yet you hear nothing about it.

It would go against the ORANGEMANBAD agenda.

Edited by RedSoloCup

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Taggart Transcontinental
1 minute ago, RedSoloCup said:

C-Can't

D- Decide

C- Crap

Nor should they. Their role is not decision making. It is support to the decision maker. That would be the President of the United States.

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slagothar
Posted (edited)

Here in Ohio, 70% of our ~2,000 (including "probable"...) deaths are related to nursing homes.  90% are >60 years.  Should've taken the Sweden approach - would've had same effect without destroying our economy....

Edited by slagothar

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MontyPython

I knew the CDC was an agenda-driven gaggle of buffoons when they took sides in the "mandated smoking ban" fiasco. They even used as their "evidence" a long-debunked and vacated "report" concerning the alleged "dangers" of second-hand smoke. They have no credibility whatsoever in my book.

<_< 

 

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MTP Reggie
18 minutes ago, MontyPython said:

I knew the CDC was an agenda-driven gaggle of buffoons when they took sides in the "mandated smoking ban" fiasco. They even used as their "evidence" a long-debunked and vacated "report" concerning the alleged "dangers" of second-hand smoke. They have no credibility whatsoever in my book.

<_< 

 

We aLl aGrEe.

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MontyPython
8 minutes ago, MTP Reggie said:

We aLl aGrEe.

LOL

+1

:lol:

 

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Weaseljd

OK, I believe the Atlantic is wrong in one of its statements here, and the result of what is happening, given the reporting, is no big deal.

First, the Atlantic says mixing the two results calls into question the amount of testing available.  Why?  I went to an Urgent Care two weeks ago (it was empty) and while there they practically begged me to take both the antibody test and the active Covid test and I got both (both negative).  just because they are mixing numbers does not mean there is a shortage of tests as my own personal experience was not that it was a one or the other, but I got both at the same time.  So they make a leap there that this issue does not seem to support as how does combining the test results support there is a lack of testing ability?

Second, I have never seen an active case count anywhere (and frankly not sure we could make an accurate count).  All the reporting has always been total number of cases (the million plus number in the US we see on the news and websites are total positives since testing started - not current positives).  But does anyone know how many "active" infections there currently are - or how we could even make such a determination without conducting 350 million simultaneous tests?  So by reporting both together the CDC and states can come up with a pretty accurate gauge of the total positive cases in the US as to who has had it or has it (active tests combined with positive anti-body to show you had it) to come up with infection rate which are the only numbers I ever see reported.  Frankly I don't know how you separate them given the positive tests often have a lag time of a few days to get the results back, and by the time you get your result (if they do not have a rapid test or on site ability to get a result), you may have actually moved from the positive infection stage to the "anti-body" stage given there seems to be evidence of an 11 day active contagious spread phase.  

Bottom line, I think this is a conspiracy theory looking for some facts to support it.  

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erp

 

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Confessor

Don’t forget about the David Horowitz article that shows the death rate for Covid is massively overstated. 
 

The flu would be shown as deadly as Covid 19 is SUPPOSED to be if they counted every death that happened while someone HAD the flu as if they actually DIED from the flu.  
 

I better be careful, some demoncrap will get that idea and keep the country shut down forever. 

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