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pepperonikkid

What the Hell Is Going on With the National Polling? Maybe This Twitter Thread Can Clear Things Up.

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pepperonikkid

What the Hell Is Going on With the National Polling? Maybe This Twitter Thread Can Clear Things Up.

 

https://townhall.com/

Matt Vespa

Posted: Sep 03, 2020

 

Article:

 

For me, it’s quite simple. The race is tightening up. The Republican National Convention gave Trump a bump. Independents are coming back to the president. Black and Hispanic voter support spiked for Trump. The economy is coming back. There’s a lot of wind at the back of the Trump campaign. The leftist rioting that’s raged all summer hasn’t helped either and it’s seeping into focus groups. It’s making the Democratic House ever more vulnerable overall. In the six most competitive House districts, the Republican leads by 10 points; the Democrats led by five in 2018. Yet, after the convention, a slew of polls showed Biden in the lead nationally, they showed no bump, they showed, this, that, and the other to deflate the GOP enthusiasm which is sky-high for Trump. Yet, how can Trump be tied with Biden in Michigan and North Carolina—and the former VP holding a near double-digit lead? What’s going on here?

Also, I see a lot of liberal writers tweeting almost identical polling results nationally and from key states that mirror the 2016 election. How did that turn out for Democrats? They’re oversampling Democrats and they’re still using registered voter models. They’re crap. And this is coming from a media establishment that overall hates the president. It’s no shock why you haven’t heard about the ten-point shift in Trump’s direction that’s occurred in Florida or the fact that Rasmussen found Black voter support for Trump hovering at around 27 percent in Pennsylvania. That’s a killer for Democrats—and in a key state to boot. 

An interesting thread by David Chapman on Twitter pretty much lays out what many Republicans and Trump supporters have noted about the polling. It’s worth a read:

“If Biden is up 7 nationally, then why does Morning Consult have Trump up 5 points in Ohio? Both things cannot be true. If Biden is up 7 nationally, why is Trump leading in Iowa???? If Biden is up 7, why do so many polls show Trump leading in NC?”

True. And yes, there is a tightening going on, more than that actually in some surveys. Chapman adds, “Biden is spending money in MN, NV, ME, & NH. All states Hillary won. But we are supposed to believe the polls? When Obama won by 7 in 2008, he nearly won MO. Biden is up 7, but Trump is up 11 in MO. If Biden was up 7 nationally, why isn't MO competitive?”

 

 

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Natural Selection

I work with a guy who lives in Kenosha, Wisconsin. He told me that when Trump came to town it was impossible to get around because there were so many Trump supporters in the streets and lining the route to town. He actually didn't show up at work that day  because he couldn't get there. He then told me about Biden's visit to Kenosha. He said you couldn't even tell he was in town. :rofl:

The polls are BS.

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oki
5 hours ago, Natural Selection said:

I work with a guy who lives in Kenosha, Wisconsin. He told me that when Trump came to town it was impossible to get around because there were so many Trump supporters in the streets and lining the route to town. He actually didn't show up at work that day  because he couldn't get there. He then told me about Biden's visit to Kenosha. He said you couldn't even tell he was in town. :rofl:

The polls are BS.

Green Bay is pretty middle of the road politically and a good gauge for the state(except Milwaukee and Madison) Put it to you this way.  There is litterally a Trump store that always seems to have customers.

I have yet to see so much as a biden stand.  Plus, in the city in general far more Trump signs than Biden. There where more Hillary signs in 2016 then there are Biden.  Most(if not all) his support is coming from those who are simply voting against Trump.  Voting against someone more so than for the person(you are voting for) doesn't win elections. 

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Natural Selection
12 minutes ago, oki said:

Green Bay is pretty middle of the road politically and a good gauge for the state(except Milwaukee and Madison) Put it to you this way.  There is litterally a Trump store that always seems to have customers.

I have yet to see so much as a biden stand.  Plus, in the city in general far more Trump signs than Biden. There where more Hillary signs in 2016 then there are Biden.  Most(if not all) his support is coming from those who are simply voting against Trump.  Voting against someone more so than for the person(you are voting for) doesn't win elections. 

Even here in Chicago where they hate Trump, I haven't seen a single Biden bumper sticker or yard sign. That's why the democrats are planning on "ballot harvesting". They mail the ballots to people they think are democrats, then they go to their home during the election and ask them to fill it out and give it to them. The democrats know that a lot of people will not bother to get off their ass and go to the polls to vote for Biden so they're going to show up at your house and not leave until you fill out your mail in ballot.

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oki
2 hours ago, Natural Selection said:

Even here in Chicago where they hate Trump, I haven't seen a single Biden bumper sticker or yard sign. That's why the democrats are planning on "ballot harvesting". They mail the ballots to people they think are democrats, then they go to their home during the election and ask them to fill it out and give it to them. The democrats know that a lot of people will not bother to get off their ass and go to the polls to vote for Biden so they're going to show up at your house and not leave until you fill out your mail in ballot.

I see some of the same crap here as well.  Key difference of coarse is that in these parts failing to leave the premises can often result speaking to the business end of a 12 gauge.  It has quite the persuasive effect no less.

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DJGoody

In Williamsport, PA yesterday they had a Trump boat rally.  There were over 100 boats floating down the Susquehanna river.  All the boats had American flags and Trump signs.  In addition, 100's of people lined the shoreline (not including people already at their river lots just hanging out).  On the road there were 100's of motorcycles for a ride to the local state park to meet up with the boaters.  It was something to see in our little sleepy town.  Of course the local news reported that there were only 25 boats.  

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zurg

Fake news is all the left has left. That’s why they lie. It’s not even something that could be called a Hail Mary, because some Hail Mary attempts actually work. 

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Natural Selection
1 minute ago, zurg said:

Fake news is all the left has left. That’s why they lie. It’s not even something that could be called a Hail Mary, because some Hail Mary attempts actually work. 

And it doesn't even help them. It's so transparent that it actually has the opposite of the intended effect.

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kestrel
21 hours ago, Natural Selection said:

Even here in Chicago where they hate Trump, I haven't seen a single Biden bumper sticker or yard sign. That's why the democrats are planning on "ballot harvesting". They mail the ballots to people they think are democrats, then they go to their home during the election and ask them to fill it out and give it to them. The democrats know that a lot of people will not bother to get off their ass and go to the polls to vote for Biden so they're going to show up at your house and not leave until you fill out your mail in ballot.

Just a thought...Wonder if this will go the way of most Dem Brainstorms?...I'm wondering if people get mail out of their mail box and then toss the junk mail but seeing a Official Looking letter they open it in expectation of a "Gimme Dat" or two but finding only a ballot I betcha 90% toss em right out.

Kestrel...

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Natural Selection
32 minutes ago, kestrel said:

Just a thought...Wonder if this will go the way of most Dem Brainstorms?...I'm wondering if people get mail out of their mail box and then toss the junk mail but seeing a Official Looking letter they open it in expectation of a "Gimme Dat" or two but finding only a ballot I betcha 90% toss em right out.

Kestrel...

I hadn't thought of that but I bet your spot on!

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