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E Van der Vliet

Wargaming the Electoral College: Can BIDEN Thread the Needle to 270? (Yes, Biden)

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E Van der Vliet

Wargaming the Electoral College: Can BIDEN Thread the Needle to 270? (Yes, Biden)

BY STEPHEN GREEN OCT 28, 2020 1:30 PM ET

 

Wargaming the Electoral College: Penultimate Edition.

All the Sharpest Political Minds™ (even if only in their own) have spent the entirety of the Wuhan Flu lockdown trying to convince you that President Donald Trump will have a very difficult time putting back together his 2016 coalition. Even if he does, they’ve said in one TV appearance and Twitter item after another, Trump might at best barely win the Electoral college vote, while getting creamed even worse in the popular vote.

I’m here to put the conventional wisdom in the corner with Baby.

On Facebook earlier this week, a friend of a friend argued that it’s actually Joe Biden (D-Dementia Ward) who actually has to thread the very finest of needles.

“I love hearing pundits on TV talk about Trump’s ‘narrow path,'” he wrote, “When in fact, it’s the Democrats who have the narrow path.”

He reminds us that “Trump is not the one who has to flip states,” and that “Trump can say something Biden can’t say: ‘I’ve won in these [battleground] states before.'”

Minus Minnesota, of course, as our Facebook pal admits. But that Trump has widened the battlefield to include Minnesota is a tell that our friend-of-a-friend is on the right track.

“A LOT has to break [Biden’s] way,” he concluded.

Let’s start this edition of Wargaming the Electoral College with that premise and with the broadest possible battleground state map.

 

Wargaming-the-Electoral-College-Big-Batt

 

You might have seen some rather fanciful scenarios at FiveThirtyEight and other outlets, showing a yuge Biden sweep in which SLOWTUS wins all the blue states Trump flipped in 2016, plus Arizona, North Carolina, and Texas.

I called BS on that before, and I’m calling BS on it again.

ASIDE: I won’t bother getting into vote fraud. If the Dems can steal big enough to steal this one from Trump, then voting and the Electoral College no longer matter and this whole country is moot.

 

Biden winning that bigly would require Trump to suffer an almost-unprecedented loss of support from Republican voters.

When you remember that millions of Trump voters were far less enthusiastic about a still-unproven candidate in 2016 than they are today, Trump losing that much support seems… unlikely.

When you remember Gallup’s almost-unprecedented R+1 voter ID poll, it seems even more unlikely.

 

Despite — or is it because of? — four years of unrelenting hostility from the press and the Swamp, Americans are more willing to call themselves Republican than they were in 2016.

And far fewer people are willing to call themselves Democrats.

With all that in mind, I feel confident taking Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio out of play.

I’m leaving Arizona in play for the moment because Republican voter registration in that state hasn’t been quite as strong as it has been in other battlegrounds. We’ll get back to Arizona momentarily.

However, I’m leaving Nevada in play (Clinton won there in ’16) because Republican voter registration there has been strong. Losing AZ’s 11 EC votes to winning NV’s 6 wouldn’t quite be a wash — but it would be close.

So here is our refined battleground map:

Narrow.jpeg

 

Link

 

This is the battleground map that I cam up with, as well.  Pennsylvania is breaking for Trump, as well as, Arizona.  If he win those two states, he wins the election.

 

Let the leftist meltdown begin!!

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ThePatriot

The Electoral College - yet ANOTHER reason Trump is headed for victory.

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zurg
6 minutes ago, ThePatriot said:

The Electoral College - yet ANOTHER reason Trump is headed for victory.

And yet another reason why American voters MUST understand that if democrats are EVER again given the opportunity to push to change any voting rules, they’ll make them such that they win for a long time. Ideally for them, in perpetuity. People need to understand this without ANY hesitation, because that’s the way it is. 

Said another way, if republicans win, the game rules remain the same as ever. Democrats or anyone can win with better ideas and presentation to the public. However, if democrats win, their first action is to rig the game so nobody else can win again. 

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Tikk

That looks like what I'm thinking as well.

When I look at Trump's rallies vs Biden's rallies and the contrast of enthusiasm, I can't help but think the motivation is on the Trump side.

And when early voters are turning out in record numbers, I can't help but think there is a correlation with that same motivation for Trump.

The pols have Democrats voting in high numbers.  How many of those Democrats are voting for Trump vs Republicans voting for Biden?

Edited by Tikk
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zurg
45 minutes ago, Tikk said:

That looks like what I'm thinking as well.

When I look at Trump's rallies vs Biden's rallies and the contrast of enthusiasm, I can't help but think the motivation is on the Trump side.

And when early voters are turning out in record numbers, I can't help but think there is a correlation with that same motivation for Trump.

The pols have Democrats voting in high numbers.  How many of those Democrats are voting for Trump vs Republicans voting for Biden?

My bottom line is that (if I could be rather certain that there isn’t enough cheating to affect the final result) if my fellow Americans prefer to go with depressing socialism benefiting only the elite, instead of the capitalistic growth and happiness that all can benefit from, it’ll be the saddest day of my life, but I would have to accept it. 

ETA: I have zero faith that the average democrat voter will accept Trump’s victory. 

Edited by zurg

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CO_Patriot

Yes Biden can win but he will have to thread the needle.  I think Florida, Ohio and Arizona are gone, and I think Biden knows it.  Biden would have to take NV and PA.  Personally I think Biden lost the election with his fracking answers.  without the rust belt the huge advantage D's had with owning NY and CA are dwarfed.  I also think Whitmer hand delivered MI to Trump.  Despite what the polls are saying you can tell from the demeanor of the campaigns the map favors Trump and not Biden.  He can have no mistakes, ala George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

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zurg

Kamala is definitely not helping his cause either. 

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satellite66

I think we will see this play out with states with extended voting.  Biden will benefit from the extra time.  If results dictate Biden votes will appear.  The ol' Al Franken move on a larger scale  

Edited by satellite66

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Tikk
12 minutes ago, zurg said:

Kamala is definitely not helping his cause either. 

With every one of her laughs.

giphy.gif

 

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zurg
4 minutes ago, Tikk said:

With every one of her laughs.

giphy.gif

 

I can think of many adjectives to describe her, none of them flattering. 

The only nice thing I’ve heard women say about her has been “nice hair”. 

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Dean Adam Smithee
1 hour ago, Tabla_Man said:

Yes Biden can win but he will have to thread the needle.  I think Florida, Ohio and Arizona are gone, and I think Biden knows it.  Biden would have to take NV and PA.  Personally I think Biden lost the election with his fracking answers.  without the rust belt the huge advantage D's had with owning NY and CA are dwarfed.  I also think Whitmer hand delivered MI to Trump.  Despite what the polls are saying you can tell from the demeanor of the campaigns the map favors Trump and not Biden.  He can have no mistakes, ala George Bush in 2000 and 2004.

I think Trump squeaks by in FL. Call it a semi-home-state advantage.  All else being 50/50, Trump has ties to FL with Mar-A-Lago et al that Biden doesn't.

Arizona is a tough one. Still nominally a 'Red" state, but just within my voting lifetime has gone from being a Sen. Barry Goldwater shade of red ('53-'65, '69-'87)  to a Sen. John McCain shade of red ('87-'18).

Ohio is tough to call as well. Northern half of the state is pro-Union "rust belt" that generally leans dem, add to it a rural farm vote that tends to lean dem with all the farm bills/ subsidies etc. On the other hand, Trump's tough talk on trade sound sounds good to the Made-in-America "Union" types; I know a few who've said so.

If there's ONE state that Trump won in '16 that he'd possibly lose in '20, I'd say PA.

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Dean Adam Smithee
1 hour ago, zurg said:

I can think of many adjectives to describe her, none of them flattering. 

The only nice thing I’ve heard women say about her has been “nice hair”. 

I can think of several adjectives as well. Most of which probably belong in a letter that starts out as, "Dear Penthouse..." LOL. 

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Dean Adam Smithee

Seriously, I don't see Biden winning the EC. but Erick Ericson DID the other day point out a path to a "tie" that would throw it to the house. Not that it's LIKELY, but that it's POSSIBLE.

But that's not as bad as y'all might think, it doesn't mean that Pelosi gets to pick the next President.

*IF* I understand Erickson correctly, If the EC fails and it goes to the house, it's not (1) vote per house member but (1) vote per state. In which case there are numerically more Red than Blue states and Trump wins.

 

 

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CO_Patriot
31 minutes ago, Dean Adam Smithee said:

I think Trump squeaks by in FL. Call it a semi-home-state advantage.  All else being 50/50, Trump has ties to FL with Mar-A-Lago et al that Biden doesn't.

Arizona is a tough one. Still nominally a 'Red" state, but just within my voting lifetime has gone from being a Sen. Barry Goldwater shade of red ('53-'65, '69-'87)  to a Sen. John McCain shade of red ('87-'18).

Ohio is tough to call as well. Northern half of the state is pro-Union "rust belt" that generally leans dem, add to it a rural farm vote that tends to lean dem with all the farm bills/ subsidies etc. On the other hand, Trump's tough talk on trade sound sounds good to the Made-in-America "Union" types; I know a few who've said so.

If there's ONE state that Trump won in '16 that he'd possibly lose in '20, I'd say PA.

It's more than a home state advantage.  D's got slaughtered in early voting in FL which they normally have a huge advantage.  R's keeping pace in Miami Dade, that's huge.  The fact is that R's have picked up registered voters in Florida and the rust belt, and D's have lost a lot of support from the unions mostly because of Trump's support of the steel industry.  Michigan is trending Trump so Ohio won't be close I expect a high single digit win for Trump in Ohio.

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zurg

All these news media are showing early voting by black people, OBVIOUSLY trying to imply, ca-ching, another vote for Biden. 

But in their own arrogance, they don’t know that Trump will quite possibly win 30% or more of the black vote. 

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CO_Patriot

Yep, D's are losing support with blacks and hispanics.  Apparently they don't like or want socialism.

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ASE
13 hours ago, zurg said:

Kamala is definitely not helping his cause either. 

kamala-toe needs to get it through her head that laughing is not a good response when she is asked relevant & important questions, and it is an obvious ploy to avoid answering. We ain't that stoopid. Maybe she thinks those important questions are just a 'distraction'.  That seems to be the word of choice lately by the media sycophant lick-spittle's that claim to be 'serious & objective journalists'.

Edited by ASE
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